{"uid":"cap_zMwdLDl2TqagaeKQ10zn6","slug":"delx-bitcoin-up-down-30-minute-probability-4ec9c8a5","name":"Delx Bitcoin Up/Down 30-Minute Probability","description":"Bitcoin Up or Down 30-Minute Probability estimates p_up and p_down for half-hour windows using the widest caller-supplied context in this family. Send 8-240 ordered caller-supplied BTC price observations, the target venue's opening price, and its close timestamp; optionally include UP/DOWN share prices and entry fees for a descriptive model-edge comparison. Returns a conservative probability pair, lean, input-quality score, model contract, and warnings for $0.003 USDC via x402 on Base or Solana…","url":"https://api.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/bitcoin-up-down-30m","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"fee_bps":{"type":"integer","maximum":1000,"minimum":0},"observations":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["timestamp","price"],"properties":{"price":{"type":"number","maximum":1000000000000000,"minimum":1e-12},"timestamp":{"type":"integer","minimum":1}},"additionalProperties":false},"maxItems":240,"minItems":8},"market_up_price":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"market_down_price":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"window_open_price":{"type":"number","maximum":1000000000000000,"minimum":1e-12},"window_close_timestamp":{"type":"integer","minimum":1}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"asset":"BTC","model":{"version":"delx-local-updown-v1","no_live_market_data":true,"probability_is_uncalibrated":true,"deterministic_for_same_input":true},"schema":"delx/prediction-updown-estimate/v1","status":"estimate","estimate":{"lean":"up","p_up":0.800833,"p_down":0.199167},"warnings":["caller_supplied_prices_not_verified","probability_is_uncalibrated","not_trading_advice"],"data_quality":{"label":"adequate_input_coverage","score":0.758333,"observations_used":8},"horizon_minutes":30,"input_provenance":"caller_supplied"}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.003","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.003/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.003","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.003","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_VsLXNR_ZuTs73v9MTmqvS","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.003","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Estimates the probability that Bitcoin will be up or down in a 30-minute window using caller-supplied BTC price observations and venue context","exampleAgentPrompt":"Using my last 12 BTC price observations (starting at $97,200 and ending at $97,650 over the past 30 minutes), with the venue's opening price at $97,200 and window closing at Unix timestamp 1748700000, estimate whether Bitcoin is more likely to finish up or down — and if market_up_price is 0.55 and market_down_price is 0.45 with a 50 bps entry fee, show me the model-edge comparison.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Binary options edge check before entry","prompt":"I have 20 ordered BTC price observations from the last 25 minutes, the venue open price is $95,400, the window closes at Unix timestamp 1748710800, the market is pricing up shares at 0.60 and down shares at 0.40 with a 30 bps fee — can you tell me if the model sees an edge and which direction it leans?"},{"title":"Automated 30-minute BTC signal generation","prompt":"Every 30 minutes I want you to take my 8 most recent BTC price data points, with the current venue open price and the upcoming close timestamp, and compute a fresh up/down probability estimate so I can decide whether to act on the next window."},{"title":"Data quality check on BTC price feed","prompt":"I want to know if my BTC price observation series — 15 data points over the last 28 minutes — is high enough quality to rely on for a 30-minute direction prediction; the venue open is $96,800 and the close timestamp is 1748715600."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with: asset (BTC), schema version, status (estimate), an estimate object with p_up, p_down, and lean direction (up/down), a data_quality object with label, score, and number of observations used, model metadata including version and calibration warnings, a list of warnings (e.g. uncalibrated probability, not trading advice), and horizon_minutes (30). Optionally includes a descriptive model-edge comparison when market share prices and fees are provided.","failureModes":["Fewer than 8 observations provided — request rejected with validation error","Observations not ordered by timestamp — may reduce data quality score or trigger warnings","window_open_price or window_close_timestamp missing — endpoint may return degraded estimate or error","market_up_price + market_down_price do not sum near 1.0 — edge comparison may be misleading","Probability is uncalibrated by design — always returns warning that output is not trading advice","Payment failure via x402 on Base or Solana — request not processed","More than 240 observations provided — schema validation error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a conservative, model-driven directional probability estimate for Bitcoin over a 30-minute window using your own caller-supplied price data — especially when you want to compare against binary market implied odds with an explicit edge calculation. It is preferable when you have 8–240 ordered BTC price observations ready and need a fast, deterministic, reproducible estimate without relying on live market data feeds. Not suitable for longer horizons, other assets, or when a calibrated probabilistic forecast is required.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T07:14:57.686Z","isFirstParty":false}