{"uid":"cap_z6p7pXm3x-zdlbZKzUJCo","slug":"agent402-tools-naive-mean-drift-baseline-forecast-8a82b623","name":"agent402.tools Naive/Mean/Drift Baseline Forecast","description":"Three textbook baseline forecasts: mean (forecast = average of history), naive (forecast = last value), drift (linear extrapolation from first to last point). Use as a sanity floor - any sophisticated method (SES, Holt, Holt-Winters) should beat the best of these on a backtest, otherwise the extra complexity isn't earning its keep. Returns point forecasts + 95% prediction intervals per Hyndman §3.1.","url":"https://agent402.tools/api/forecast-naive","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"method":{"type":"string","description":"\"mean\", \"naive\", or \"drift\" (default \"drift\")"},"values":{"type":"array","description":"Numeric series in chronological order (max 10000)"},"horizon":{"type":"number","description":"Number of future periods to forecast (1 to 1000)"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"n":10,"method":"drift","horizon":3,"forecast":[{"step":1,"point":23.3333,"lower95":21.8037,"upper95":24.863},{"step":2,"point":24.6667,"lower95":22.3979,"upper95":26.9355},{"step":3,"point":26,"lower95":23.0977,"upper95":28.9023}]}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_my4f07EdDMtvBYzsuXfSq","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Generates simple baseline time-series forecasts (mean, naive, or drift methods) for a given numeric series and forecast horizon","exampleAgentPrompt":"Use the drift method to forecast the next 12 periods for this monthly sales series: [120, 135, 128, 142, 150, 163, 158, 172, 180, 195, 188, 210].","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns an array of forecasted numeric values for the requested number of future periods, computed using the selected baseline method (mean = average of all historical values, naive = last observed value repeated, drift = linear extrapolation from first to last point).","failureModes":["Empty or missing values array returns validation error","Horizon outside 1–1000 range rejected","Values array exceeding 10,000 elements rejected","Non-numeric values in array cause parse error","Invalid method string (not 'mean', 'naive', or 'drift') returns error","Payment failure (x402) blocks request if USDC balance is insufficient"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a quick, cheap sanity-floor forecast to benchmark against more sophisticated methods (SES, Holt, Holt-Winters, ARIMA). Ideal for establishing a performance baseline, validating that a complex model is actually adding value, or when you need a fast, interpretable prediction without model fitting. Best when the series is short or when you explicitly need a textbook mean, naive, or drift forecast.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T19:14:06.936Z","isFirstParty":false}