{"uid":"cap_yvMJOs6EmQOQIrAXeOMUe","slug":"holt-s-linear-exponential-smoothing-forecast-5fd8966f","name":"Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing Forecast","description":"Holt's linear trend method - level + trend (no seasonality). Two smoothing parameters: alpha (level) and beta (trend). Forecast extrapolates as a straight line from the last fitted level along the last fitted trend, so it grows or shrinks linearly with horizon. Use this when your series has a persistent up/down trend but no seasonal cycle (e.g. a SaaS MRR climb, a deflating cohort retention curve).","url":"https://agent402.tools/api/forecast-holt","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"beta":{"type":"number","description":"Trend smoothing, 0 < beta < 1 (default 0.3)"},"alpha":{"type":"number","description":"Level smoothing, 0 < alpha < 1 (default 0.5)"},"values":{"type":"array","description":"Numeric series in chronological order (max 10000, min 4)"},"horizon":{"type":"number","description":"Number of future periods to forecast (1 to 1000)"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"n":10,"beta":0.3,"alpha":0.5,"method":"holt","horizon":3,"forecast":[{"step":1,"point":163.2012,"lower95":161.6463,"upper95":164.756},{"step":2,"point":169.7416,"lower95":167.8871,"upper95":171.596},{"step":3,"point":176.282,"lower95":174.049,"upper95":178.515}]}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_ZF54OmT2O_aZNa-8CMu4t","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Applies Holt's two-parameter linear trend smoothing to a time series and returns a straight-line forecast for a specified number of future periods.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Use Holt's linear trend method to forecast the next 12 periods for this monthly sales series [120, 135, 148, 160, 175, 190, 205, 220], with alpha set to 0.4 and beta set to 0.2.","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns forecasted values for the requested number of future periods, extrapolated as a straight line from the last fitted level along the last fitted trend, along with the fitted level and trend at the end of the series.","failureModes":["Series too short (fewer than 4 values) — returns validation error","Horizon out of range (less than 1 or greater than 1000) — returns error","Alpha or beta not between 0 and 1 (exclusive) — returns parameter validation error","Series exceeds 10000 values — returns size limit error","Non-numeric values in series — returns type error","Payment not provided — returns 402 Payment Required"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when your time series has a clear linear trend but no seasonal pattern, and you need a simple, interpretable forecast. It is ideal for demand planning, sales projection, or any monotonically growing or declining series where Holt's two-parameter model suffices. Prefer it over seasonal models (Holt-Winters) when seasonality is absent or irrelevant, and over simple exponential smoothing when a trend component must be captured.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T19:14:06.935Z","isFirstParty":false}