{"uid":"cap_y4AEYYphbN4Sj9DyLlOTt","slug":"invinoveritas-strategy-overfitting-validator-e0493fc3","name":"invinoveritas Strategy Overfitting Validator","description":"A neutral verdict before an irreversible action, a signed proof after, and a public track record of being right you recompute — not a score you trust. The verdict is provably committed before the outcome it's graded against: no TEE, no trusted scorer.","url":"https://api.babyblueviper.com/validate","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"returns":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"number"},"description":"Realized per-period returns of the strategy (never the strategy itself)"},"n_variants_tried":{"type":"integer","description":"How many variants you tested (drives the Deflated Sharpe haircut)"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"schema":"invinoveritas.validate.v1","verdict":"overfit","disclaimer":"Statistical edge-reality check, not financial advice.","permutation_p":0.42,"deflated_sharpe":0.31,"kfold_oos_decay_pct":61}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.181606","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.181606/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.181606","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.181606","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_yMRLgiTbAIIFC4qPcQoaU","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.181606","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Statistically validates trading strategy returns for overfitting using Deflated Sharpe Ratio, permutation tests, and k-fold out-of-sample decay analysis","exampleAgentPrompt":"Run invinoveritas on my strategy's monthly returns [0.02, -0.01, 0.03, 0.015, -0.005, 0.04, 0.01, -0.02, 0.025, 0.03, -0.01, 0.02] — I tested 47 variants before settling on this one, so I need the deflated Sharpe haircut and an overfit verdict.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Validate backtest before live deployment","prompt":"I've got a strategy showing a Sharpe of 2.1 on 3 years of daily returns but I tried probably 30 different parameter combos to get there — run invinoveritas on these returns [0.001, 0.003, -0.002, 0.004, 0.002, -0.001, 0.003, 0.005, -0.003, 0.002, 0.004, 0.001, -0.002, 0.003, 0.002] and tell me if this edge is real or if I'm just overfitting to historical noise before I put real money in."},{"title":"Detect data snooping in quant research","prompt":"My research team screened 120 factor combinations looking for alpha signals and landed on one with a really strong backtest — can you send these monthly returns [0.03, 0.01, -0.02, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, -0.01, 0.03, 0.02, -0.005, 0.035, 0.015] through invinoveritas with the trial count set to 120 so we get the multiple-testing correction and an honest out-of-sample decay estimate?"},{"title":"Audit strategy edge for investor reporting","prompt":"Before we present this algorithmic strategy to LPs, I want an independent statistical audit — here are the weekly returns [0.005, 0.008, -0.003, 0.006, 0.004, -0.002, 0.007, 0.009, -0.004, 0.005, 0.006, 0.003, -0.001, 0.008, 0.004, 0.007], we tested around 60 variants, and I need the permutation p-value and deflated Sharpe so we're not overselling a lucky backtest."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing a verdict ('overfit' or similar), permutation p-value indicating statistical significance, deflated Sharpe ratio after correcting for multiple testing, and k-fold out-of-sample decay percentage showing how much the strategy degrades on unseen data.","failureModes":["Missing or empty returns array returns validation error","n_variants_tried of zero or negative may cause division errors or undefined deflation haircut","Returns array too short for meaningful k-fold cross-validation may yield unreliable results","Malformed numeric values in returns array cause schema rejection","Insufficient balance of USDC for x402 payment causes 402 Payment Required before processing"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when an AI agent or quant needs an objective, statistically rigorous check of a trading strategy's backtested returns before committing capital — especially when multiple variants were tried, making naive Sharpe ratios misleading. Prefer over simple Sharpe ratio calculators when data snooping or overfitting risk is the core concern.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T00:42:37.275Z","isFirstParty":false}