{"uid":"cap_xpXe3cpxhtINr5cqQ4U3d","slug":"apex-runner-regime-transition-probability-signal-d74e9858","name":"APEX Runner Regime Transition Probability Signal","description":"APEX Runner: Regime Transition Probability Signal","url":"https://apexrunner.ai/signals/regime-transition-probability","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","signal":"string — PRE_TREND / PRE_CRISIS / STABLE / UNCERTAIN","example":{"signal":"PRE_TREND","confidence":"MEDIUM","current_regime":"RANGING","most_likely_next":"TRENDING","transition_probability":0.55,"transition_probabilities":{"CHOPPY":0.08,"CRISIS":0.12,"RANGING":0.45,"TRENDING":0.35}},"confidence":"string — LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH based on data points available","data_points":"integer — number of real APEX trade lessons used in matrix","key_factors":"array — top 3 technical factors influencing the prediction","current_regime":"string — current BTC market regime","most_likely_next":"string — most probable next regime if transition occurs","transition_probability":"float — overall probability of ANY regime change (0-1)","transition_probabilities":"object — probability for each regime (RANGING/TRENDING/CRISIS/CHOPPY) summing to 1.0"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.007","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.007/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.007","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.007","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_gxleMw7DoDzfeNe1tVlQY","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.007","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a probabilistic signal indicating the likelihood of a cryptocurrency market regime transition (e.g., bull-to-bear or bear-to-bull shift)","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current regime transition probability for crypto right now — is the market likely to shift regimes soon, and in which direction?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"A probabilistic signal score (likely 0-1) indicating the likelihood of a market regime transition, including current regime classification (e.g., bull/bear/sideways), direction of potential transition, and a confidence score or supporting context for use in trading decisions.","failureModes":["Invalid or unsupported asset identifier returns 4xx error","Stale market data may reduce signal reliability","Payment failure (insufficient USDC or x402 auth error) blocks access","Rate limiting if called too frequently","Signal may be unavailable during exchange downtime or data feed gaps"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when an AI trading agent or quant system needs a real-time, model-derived probability estimate for crypto market regime changes — particularly when integrating with APEX Runner's broader autonomous trading stack on Kraken, Coinbase, or Hyperliquid, and when you need a single scalar signal rather than raw price data or order book analysis.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T18:42:29.660Z","isFirstParty":false}