{"uid":"cap_wqndY2t6fg4RO1UBqcQWY","slug":"overwatch-desk-prediction-market-trade-idea-submission-96a9bdbc","name":"Overwatch Desk – Prediction Market Trade Idea Submission","description":"Submit a prediction-market trade idea to the Overwatch Desk (Kalshi or Polymarket). Your estimate is locked before any price is shown. Accepted ideas are traded with the desk's own money; you get a negotiable share (15-50%) of realised profit to your Base address. Every submission gets a decision and reason: GET /desk/{id}. Body: venue, market, side, estimate, max_price, payout_address, evidence_url or backtest.","url":"https://dominion-data.x402-evm-math.workers.dev/desk/idea?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method","bodyType","body"],"properties":{"body":{"properties":{}},"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["POST"],"type":"string"},"bodyType":{"enum":["json","form-data","text"],"type":"string"}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"id":"iabc123","status":"received","status_url":"/desk/iabc123"}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"registry","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_RuEiRKrg4DVLV-zZXiena","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":null,"unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Submit a prediction-market trade idea (Kalshi or Polymarket) to the Overwatch Desk; your estimate is locked pre-price, and accepted ideas are traded with desk capital for a 30% profit share paid to your Base address.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Submit my Polymarket trade idea to the Overwatch Desk: I think YES on 'Will the Fed cut rates in September?' at an estimate of 0.65, max price 0.68, on the BUY side — here's my evidence doc at https://mygdrive.com/fed-analysis, and pay any profits to my Base address 0xAbCd1234...5678.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Kalshi earnings event trade pitch","prompt":"Submit a trade idea to the Overwatch Desk on Kalshi: I'm bullish YES on the 'AAPL beats Q3 EPS' market, my estimate is 0.72, max price I'd pay is 0.74, and I have a backtest showing 68% accuracy over 12 similar earnings events. Pay profits to 0xMYBASEADDR."},{"title":"Polymarket election market edge submission","prompt":"Send this to the Overwatch Desk on Polymarket — I want to go YES on 'Will Biden drop out before August?', I estimate 0.58 probability, max price 0.60, and my evidence is at https://evidence.link/biden-analysis. Send my 30% cut to 0xPayoutAddress."},{"title":"Automated agent-driven market idea pipeline","prompt":"Every time my research agent flags a high-confidence prediction, submit it automatically to the Overwatch Desk — venue Polymarket, side YES, with my standing payout address 0xAgentWallet and the evidence URL from the research report."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with a submission ID, a status of 'received', and a status_url path (e.g. /desk/{id}) where the agent can poll for the desk's decision, acceptance or rejection reason, and eventual profit-share outcome.","failureModes":["Missing required fields (venue, market, side, estimate, max_price, payout_address) returns a 4xx validation error","Invalid venue name (not Kalshi or Polymarket) causes rejection","Malformed Base payout address results in submission failure","Evidence URL unreachable or backtest data invalid may lead to rejection with reason","Payment of $0.01 USDC not received causes 402 Payment Required error","Duplicate or already-priced ideas may be rejected by the desk with explanation"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you want to monetize a prediction-market edge without executing the trade yourself — specifically when you have a well-reasoned probability estimate on a Kalshi or Polymarket market and want a funded desk to execute it in exchange for 30% of realized profit. Prefer this over direct trading APIs when you lack capital, want asymmetric upside, or want your estimate locked before seeing live market prices to avoid anchoring bias.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-29T12:39:16.733Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"overwatch-desk-prediction-market-trade-idea-submission-96a9bdbc"}