{"uid":"cap_wcrZzLoBewU4xZiTvW13W","slug":"api-dripmetrics-ai-a209ba42","name":"DripMetrics Polymarket Probability Shock","description":"DripMetricsAI (https://dripmetrics.ai/) provides on-demand crypto market microstructure metrics, Hyperliquid candle metrics, Polymarket diagnostics, and on-chain DefiLlama metrics for agents, dashboards, and trading workflows.","url":"https://api.dripmetrics.ai/polymarket/probability-shock","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["POST"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","anyOf":[{"required":["tokenId"]},{"required":["assetId"]},{"required":["slug","outcome"]}],"required":[],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string","description":"Polymarket market or event slug for human-readable market selection. Multi-market event slugs may require conditionId to disambiguate."},"endTs":{"type":"integer","description":"Optional unix timestamp upper bound."},"limit":{"type":"integer","maximum":5000,"minimum":1,"description":"Maximum number of trades to evaluate."},"newsTs":{"type":"integer","description":"Optional explicit event timestamp for leakage scoring. If omitted, the metric uses the midpoint of the effective analysis window."},"assetId":{"type":"string","description":"Alias for tokenId on price-history-based endpoints."},"outcome":{"enum":["YES","NO"],"type":"string","description":"Required for token-side Polymarket diagnostics when the selected YES or NO side must be interpreted."},"startTs":{"type":"integer","description":"Optional unix timestamp lower bound."},"tokenId":{"type":"string","description":"Polymarket token / asset ID for orderbook and price-history endpoints."},"conditionId":{"type":"string","description":"Polymarket condition ID for trade-based metrics."},"windowMinutes":{"type":"integer","minimum":1,"description":"Lookback window in minutes."},"lookbackMinutes":{"type":"integer","minimum":1,"description":"Historical lookback used for probability shock normalization."}},"additionalProperties":false}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["metric","window","value","components","sampleSize","source","computedAt"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string"},"value":{"type":["number","null"]},"metric":{"type":"string"},"source":{"type":"object"},"window":{"type":"object"},"assetId":{"type":"string"},"outcome":{"type":"string"},"tokenId":{"type":"string"},"components":{"type":"object"},"computedAt":{"type":"string","format":"date-time"},"sampleSize":{"type":"object"},"conditionId":{"type":"string"}},"additionalProperties":false}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","value":2.1437,"metric":"probability-shock","source":{"market":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/slug/fed-decision-in-october","priceHistory":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history"},"window":{"windowMinutes":60,"lookbackMinutes":1440},"assetId":"52114319501245791867035421127632480533667839244426816785285192633646117989903","outcome":"YES","tokenId":"52114319501245791867035421127632480533667839244426816785285192633646117989903","components":{"delta":0.07,"shockZ":2.1437,"priorPrice":0.54,"realizedVol":0.0326,"currentPrice":0.61},"computedAt":"2026-05-25T14:00:00.000Z","sampleSize":{"pricePoints":1440},"conditionId":"0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917"}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.05","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"settled","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.05/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_enjF3GJ2mG_QtyLyTqd-n","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.05","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":null,"unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Measures how large a recent Polymarket price move is relative to recent realized volatility, returning a normalized probability shock score for a given market token or slug.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Check the probability shock on the Polymarket market with slug 'will-trump-win-2024' for the YES outcome using a 60-minute window and a 1440-minute lookback — I want to know if the recent price move is unusually large relative to its historical volatility.","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"A structured JSON object containing the metric name ('probability-shock'), the analysis window, a normalized shock value indicating how many standard deviations the recent price move is from the historical baseline, component breakdown values, sample size, data source, and a computedAt timestamp.","failureModes":["Missing required market identifier (tokenId, assetId, or slug+outcome) returns a 400 validation error","Invalid or non-existent tokenId/slug returns a 404 or empty result","Payment not provided or insufficient USDC balance returns a 402 Payment Required","windowMinutes or lookbackMinutes too small for sufficient data may return a low sampleSize or error","Polymarket API unavailability may cause upstream data fetch failures"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need to detect or quantify abnormal price moves on a specific Polymarket prediction market — particularly for risk alerting, anomaly detection, or news-leakage scoring relative to recent realized volatility. Prefer over raw price feeds when you need a normalized, interpretable shock score rather than raw price levels.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T18:48:14.072Z","isFirstParty":false}