{"uid":"cap_vnSaGzDb5I6-bg1RKl6wt","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-bfe7f7b4","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-prediction-stream)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-prediction-stream?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Q3UEPHnvTjad1tgjnuITv","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events by topic keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities on the Fed cutting rates in September — including current trading volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds and implied probability for Bitcoin hitting $100k by end of year — I want to see current volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction monitoring","prompt":"What's Polymarket currently saying about the chance of a US recession in 2025? Give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and orderbook sentiment right now."},{"title":"AI regulation market odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket for any active prediction markets on AI regulation or the EU AI Act passing this year — I need the current odds and trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured response including live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes and No probabilities expressed as percentages or decimals, 24-hour trading volume, and a whale sentiment indicator for the queried prediction market topic or event keyword.","failureModes":["No matching market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causes fetch failure","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets with unpredictable selection","Stale orderbook data if market is illiquid or recently closed","Payment/402 authentication failure preventing request completion"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket specifically, including orderbook depth and whale activity — not just headline odds scraped from a news aggregator. Prefer it over generic news APIs when you need quantified market-implied probabilities with volume context for trading or research decisions.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:25:59.494Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}