{"uid":"cap_uXbW5pSififRyVVrtd00q","slug":"pennyrail-naive-baseline-forecaster-b8e86dd5","name":"PennyRail Naive Baseline Forecaster","description":"Generate mean, naive and drift baseline forecasts with simple 95% prediction intervals. Useful as a sanity floor before paying for a more complex forecasting model. Exact-match PennyRail gap-arbitrage route.","url":"https://pennyrail.vercel.app/api/bazaar/forecast-naive","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method","bodyType","body"],"properties":{"body":{"type":"object","description":"Input for Naive baseline forecasts.","additionalProperties":true},"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["POST"],"type":"string"},"bodyType":{"enum":["json","form-data","text"],"type":"string"}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_joGeGyCz8oitJL9F8RiV1","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Generates mean, naive, and drift baseline time-series forecasts with 95% prediction intervals as a sanity-check floor before using more complex models.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Run a naive baseline forecast on my monthly sales figures — I have 24 months of historical data and want to see the mean, naive, and drift forecasts with 95% prediction intervals so I can decide if I need a fancier model.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Sanity-check before ML investment","prompt":"I have 18 months of weekly website traffic numbers and I want to see what a naive baseline forecast says before I spend money on a proper ML model — give me the mean, naive, and drift forecasts with 95% prediction intervals."},{"title":"Benchmark for model comparison","prompt":"Generate naive, mean, and drift baseline forecasts with 95% prediction intervals for my quarterly revenue series so I can compare them against the ARIMA model my team built."},{"title":"Quick forecast for budget planning","prompt":"I need a fast rough forecast of my monthly utility costs using my last 12 months of data — just give me the simple baseline forecasts with prediction intervals, nothing fancy."}],"resultDescription":"Returns mean, naive, and drift baseline forecast values along with 95% prediction intervals for each method, providing a statistical floor against which more sophisticated models can be benchmarked.","failureModes":["Insufficient historical data points causing degenerate or missing forecasts","Malformed body payload resulting in a 400 validation error","Missing required fields in the input body causing rejection","Payment not settled or x402 payment header missing causing 402 response","Body type mismatch between declared bodyType and actual payload format"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a cheap, fast sanity-check forecast before committing to expensive or complex time-series models. It is ideal as a benchmark baseline, a first-pass prediction, or when the cost of a sophisticated model is not yet justified. Prefer this over ML-based forecasting APIs when simplicity, speed, and cost ($0.001/call) matter most.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T00:52:44.465Z","isFirstParty":false}