{"uid":"cap_trQa3MiDFsU2P6hvf6GsW","slug":"manylives-track-records-luck-test-e34f7af1","name":"ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test","description":"No forms, no dropdowns. Describe the outcome in plain words and the Brain asks what it must, lists the job, collects offers and recommends one.","url":"https://manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"type":"string","const":"GET"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["id","window"],"properties":{"id":{"type":"string","examples":["CRY-5m-001"],"description":"strategy id (required), e.g. CRY-1h-042"},"window":{"type":"string","examples":["all"],"description":"required lookback, e.g. 1d, 3d, 1w, 30d, 3m, 1y, all or a start date YYYY-MM-DD"}}}}},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"json"},"example":{"type":"object","properties":{"id":{"type":"string"},"calls":{"type":"number"},"window":{"type":"string"},"verdict":{"type":"string"},"hit_rate":{"type":"number"},"holm_adjusted_p":{"type":"number"},"p_value_one_sided":{"type":"number"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"id":"CRY-1h-042","calls":2400,"window":"all time","verdict":"looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested","hit_rate":0.523,"holm_adjusted_p":0.9,"p_value_one_sided":0.012}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.03","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.03/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_yEF_qX99EYwQ5C6wWXeXz","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.03","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns statistical significance metrics (p-value, Holm-adjusted p-value, hit rate, verdict) for a given trading strategy ID to determine whether its performance is genuine or attributable to luck.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Can you check if strategy CRY-5m-001 is genuinely performing or just got lucky — run the full track record luck test over all time?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Validating a crypto strategy before going live","prompt":"Before I start trading strategy CRY-1h-042 with real money, can you check its track record and tell me if its 52% hit rate is statistically significant or could just be luck across all time?"},{"title":"30-day significance check after a hot streak","prompt":"Strategy CRY-5m-001 has been killing it lately — can you run the luck test on its track record for the last 30 days and give me the p-value and verdict?"},{"title":"Multi-strategy false discovery screening","prompt":"I've been backtesting dozens of strategies and want to know if strategy CRY-1h-042 still looks good after correcting for multiple comparisons — what does the Holm-adjusted p-value say over the full history?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing the strategy ID, number of calls evaluated, the time window assessed, the raw one-sided p-value, the Holm-adjusted p-value (correcting for multiple strategy testing), the hit rate, and a plain-English verdict explaining whether the performance looks genuine or could be attributed to luck given how many strategies were tested.","failureModes":["Missing or invalid strategy ID returns an error — the 'id' query parameter is required","Unknown strategy ID returns no data or a 404-equivalent","Invalid window value (not one of: 7d, 30d, 3m, 1y, all) may default to 'all' or return an error","Insufficient call count for a strategy may yield unreliable statistics","Payment failure via x402 protocol results in a 402 response before data is returned"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need to determine whether a specific trading strategy's historical hit rate is statistically significant after correcting for multiple-hypothesis bias (Holm adjustment). Prefer this over a simple win-rate lookup when you want a rigorous, bias-corrected verdict rather than raw performance numbers. It is especially valuable after running many strategy backtests, where naive p-values are misleading.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-10T12:42:04.348Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"manylives-track-records-luck-test-e34f7af1"}