{"uid":"cap_tYZaJbYrznGGl10TptaFS","slug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-federal-election-trend-monte-carlo-ea01fc99","name":"polls.karbach.digital – German Federal Election Trend (Monte-Carlo Simulation)","description":"Federal polling average today per party with 95 percent band (Bundestag). Use when asked how German parties currently stand nationally. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.","url":"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/federal/trend?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"parties":[{"ci95":[19.6,40.4],"name":"AfD","party":"AfD","median":28.5,"poll_average":28.5,"entry_probability":100},{"ci95":[11.1,31.4],"name":"Union (CDU/CSU)","party":"CDU/CSU","median":18.8,"poll_average":18.8,"entry_probability":100}],"election":"btw-2029"},"docs":"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/","model":{"version":"4.16","polls_used":5,"simulations":10000,"point_estimate":"weighted_poll_avg (Fenster 5, temporal_decay_14d + institute_quality)"},"notice":"Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...","source":{"polls":"dawum.de","processing":"polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)","polls_license":"ODbL 1.0","polls_license_url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"},"project":"Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)","updated_at":"2026-10-17 18:00:09","uncertainty":"ci95: range that contains the result with 95 percent probability in the simulation. Out of sample in 2026 the band held 17 of 21 values (81 percent)."}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_mfU-fGyyseP-nbNd2vPJp","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns current Monte-Carlo simulation results for the German federal election (Bundestagswahl), including party vote-share medians, 95% confidence intervals, and parliament-entry probabilities, updated every 6 hours.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the latest Monte-Carlo forecast for the 2029 German federal election — show me each party's median vote share, confidence interval, and their probability of making it into the Bundestag?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Tracking AfD polling momentum","prompt":"What does the current simulation say about AfD's vote share in the next Bundestagswahl — give me their median, confidence interval, and how likely they are to enter parliament?"},{"title":"Coalition arithmetic analysis","prompt":"Based on the latest German federal election simulation, which parties have 100% parliament-entry probability, and what two-party or three-party coalitions could mathematically form a majority?"},{"title":"Political newsletter briefing","prompt":"Pull the latest Karbach.Digital federal election trend data for me — I need the median poll average and 95% confidence interval for each major party for this week's political briefing."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing an array of German political parties each with their median vote share, poll average, 95% confidence interval bounds, and parliament-entry probability (0–100), plus simulation metadata (model version, number of polls used, number of simulations, temporal decay weighting), data source attribution (dawum.de, ODbL 1.0), and a last-updated timestamp. Also includes a notice clarifying this is scenario analysis, not a prediction or voting recommendation.","failureModes":["Stale data if the 6-hour update cycle is delayed","No input schema flexibility (GET with no documented query parameters beyond an empty properties object)","Missing parties if dawum.de source data is incomplete","Confidence intervals may be wide (e.g. 19.6–40.4 pp for AfD) reflecting genuine poll variance, not model failure","Out-of-sample calibration holds ~81% (17/21 values), so rare extreme results may fall outside CI","HTTP errors if the API is unavailable or payment fails via x402 protocol"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a probabilistic, Monte-Carlo-based forecast for the German federal election (Bundestagswahl) rather than a raw poll average. It is uniquely suited for questions about confidence intervals, parliament-entry probabilities, and coalition arithmetic. Prefer it over generic news APIs or raw polling aggregators when you need calibrated uncertainty quantification (Leave-One-Out validated, MAE ±1.27 pp). Updated every 6 hours, so suitable for near-real-time political monitoring. Not suitable for state-level (Landtag) elections — sibling endpoints exist for those.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T12:37:52.747Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-federal-election-trend-monte-carlo-ea01fc99"}