{"uid":"cap_tQTJgtSvcOcsZu5OLg-Wp","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-ec4197d9","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/macro-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_fUsPHj3TYwUjTsGgP_bEL","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI-related events.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end of year — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of Ethereum ETF approval — give me the live Yes/No odds, volume, and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"Macro economic event odds","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket prediction market odds for a US Federal Reserve rate cut happening before December — what's the implied probability right now?"},{"title":"AI regulation market sentiment","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds that the EU AI Act enforcement triggers a major fine against a US tech company this year? I want the implied probability and volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.","failureModes":["Topic keyword does not match any active Polymarket market — returns empty or no results","Ambiguous topic string matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or first-match data","Polymarket API upstream outage — returns 502 or timeout error","Payment not completed via x402 protocol — returns 402 Payment Required","Market has resolved or expired — data may be stale or unavailable"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events as reflected by actual money at stake on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by financial incentives. Best suited for agents doing event-driven trading research, risk assessment, or reporting on prediction market consensus.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:24:56.865Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}