{"uid":"cap_syLwx7KvukOCs6ZVRxXhM","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-d630817b","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-oracle?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Nfc2IIw7X5UURMTyYSxaA","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin ETF approval in 2025, including whale sentiment and current trading volume?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the chances of Ethereum hitting $10k this year — give me the implied probability and any notable whale positioning."},{"title":"Macro policy outcome odds","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket prediction market odds for the Fed cutting interest rates at the next FOMC meeting, including volume and Yes/No probabilities."},{"title":"AI regulation market sentiment","prompt":"What are traders on Polymarket betting on for a US AI regulation bill passing in 2025? I want the implied probability and whale sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes probability, implied No probability, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the queried prediction market topic or event.","failureModes":["Topic not found on Polymarket — returns empty or null market data","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return unexpected market","Polymarket API downtime causes stale or unavailable data","Payment failure via x402 results in 402 response with no data returned","Very niche or newly created markets may have low volume and unreliable probabilities"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for discrete binary events — especially macro, crypto, or AI-related outcomes — backed by actual financial stakes on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment tools when you want market-implied probabilities rather than qualitative sentiment, and over static data sources when you need live orderbook depth and whale activity signals.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:24:37.726Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}