{"uid":"cap_spwC5hLSTC2P6kIJISZf3","slug":"taifoon-mech-predict-probabilistic-yes-no-forecasting-448ac5c8","name":"Taifoon Mech Predict – Probabilistic Yes/No Forecasting","description":"Olas-style yes/no forecast: { question } in, { p_yes, p_no, confidence, info_utility } out with reasoning and sources. BTC/ETH/SOL price questions with a threshold and a date are modelled from the Taifoon venue tape (sources replayable); any other question is a small open model's prior with no web search (no sources, confidence at most 0.3). Checked before you are charged. 0.01 USDC a forecast.","url":"https://coord.taifoon.dev/v1/x402/class/mech.predict?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"question":{"type":"string","maxLength":2000,"minLength":8,"description":"one yes/no question (or the Olas prompt \"With the given question \\\"…\\\" …\")"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"tool":"prediction-tape","prompt":"Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 31, 2026?","result":"{\"p_yes\":0.31,\"p_no\":0.69,\"confidence\":0.6,\"info_utility\":0.7}","forecast":{"p_no":0.69,"p_yes":0.31,"sources":[{"url":"https://clob.taifoon.dev/tape/v1/candles/BTC/1m?from=…&to=…","kind":"tape","what":"the last closed 1-minute BTC bar (its close is the spot)","as_of":"…","value":0}],"grounded":"tape","reasoning":"BTC closed at … USD on the Taifoon venue tape …; a driftless lognormal price ends at or above 100,000 with probability 0.31. …","confidence":0.6,"info_utility":0.7},"follow_up":{"id":"fc_…","state":"PENDING","resolver":"tape"},"requestId":"fc_…"}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_PVHwCxJRMobGcXPKQXgvm","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Accepts a yes/no question and returns a probabilistic forecast with p_yes, p_no, confidence, and info_utility scores grounded in real market tape data","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the probability that Bitcoin will be above $100,000 on December 31, 2026? Give me the p_yes, p_no, and confidence score using Taifoon's prediction tape.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Bitcoin year-end price probability","prompt":"What are the odds that Bitcoin closes above $150,000 by December 31, 2026? I need p_yes, p_no, and how confident the model is."},{"title":"ETH breakout scenario forecast","prompt":"Give me a probability estimate: will Ethereum trade above $5,000 before the end of Q1 2027? I want the forecast grounded in current tape data."},{"title":"Trading hypothesis validation","prompt":"I'm considering a long position on BTC. Can you forecast whether BTC will be above its current price in 30 days and give me p_yes, p_no, and confidence?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with a forecast object containing p_yes and p_no probabilities, a confidence score (0–1), an info_utility score (0–1), a reasoning string explaining the lognormal model and tape-grounded inputs, an array of sources (market tape candles with URLs), a follow_up object with an ID and state for async resolution, and a requestId. Also returns the original prompt echoed back and the tool name ('prediction-tape').","failureModes":["Question shorter than 8 characters or exceeds 2000 characters — 400 validation error","Ambiguous question that is not clearly yes/no may produce low confidence and info_utility scores","Tape data unavailable for the referenced asset — forecast may lack grounded sources","Missing or invalid API key (X-API-Key) — 401 or 402 response; endpoint also returns get_key guidance for unauthenticated callers","Network timeout if tape candle data feed is slow","Asset not supported (non-BTC/ETH/SOL/NQ/ES/YM questions) may result in low-quality or ungrounded forecasts"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a structured probabilistic forecast (p_yes/p_no with confidence) for a yes/no financial or market question, especially one referencing crypto or CME micro-futures prices. Prefer it over generic LLM reasoning when you want the probability grounded in actual live market tape (OHLCV candle data) rather than static training knowledge. It is particularly valuable for trading agents, prediction market participants, and automated risk assessment workflows that need machine-readable probability outputs rather than qualitative answers.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-20T00:36:32.573Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"taifoon-mech-predict-probabilistic-yes-no-forecasting-448ac5c8"}