{"uid":"cap_sXykx0ug8qs9NFcYBh_mc","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-32f5dd29","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_PI8wk93sgbjJnyJ2YzzAE","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025 — and is there any notable whale activity on that market?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto price event probability check","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds for Ethereum breaking $5,000 before the end of this year — I want the implied Yes probability and how much volume is behind it."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction market lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in Q1 2025? Give me the Yes/No probabilities and any notable whale sentiment."},{"title":"AI event forecasting odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket for the current probability that GPT-5 gets released before mid-2025 — I want the live odds and trading volume on that market."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live orderbook data from Polymarket for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the matched prediction market(s).","failureModes":["Topic does not match any active Polymarket market — returns empty or null result","Ambiguous topic string matches multiple unrelated markets — results may be mixed","Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable — service error or stale data returned","Payment not fulfilled via x402 — 402 Payment Required response blocking the call","Rate limiting or quota exhaustion — request throttled or rejected"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability data on specific macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks, especially when you want implied odds, volume metrics, and large-trader (whale) sentiment in a single call. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you want market-consensus probability expressed as a percentage rather than qualitative sentiment.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T12:37:52.554Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}