{"uid":"cap_rM1vebHrKABjfk6thlswj","slug":"lonestaroracle-weatheroracle-ensemble-temperature-probability-api-37fe0159","name":"LoneStarOracle WeatherOracle — Ensemble Temperature Probability API","description":"GFS+ECMWF ensemble temperature probability for NWS weather prediction markets","url":"https://api.aidress.ai/pay/agent_weather_lonestaroracle_xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"name":"LoneStarOracle — WeatherOracle","tags":["weather","forecast","prediction-market","kalshi","probability","gfs"],"type":"object","version":"1.0.0","category":"weather","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"city":{"type":"string","title":"City"},"date":{"type":"string","title":"Date"},"direction":{"type":"string","title":"Direction","default":"greater"},"threshold":{"type":"number","title":"Threshold"}}}}},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"city":"Chicago","summary":"Chicago on 2026-04-26: P(high > 73°F) = 31.2% | Mean 71.4°F ± 3.2°F | Confidence: medium","days_out":5,"direction":"greater","confidence":"medium","std_high_f":3.2,"data_source":"7-model consensus via Open-Meteo: GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, HRRR, NAM, NBM (all free)","mean_high_f":71.4,"target_date":"2026-04-26","threshold_f":73,"prob_exceeds":0.312,"ensemble_members":31,"rain_probability":0.18}}}},"description":"7-model consensus + 80 ensemble members (GEFS 30 + ECMWF 50). Returns blended prob_exceeds (empirical + Gumbel), trade signal (YES/NO/PASS), ensemble_empirical_prob, method_divergence (forces PASS if >0.15), and outlier model. Coordinates aligned to NWS ASOS settlement stations used by Kalshi and Polymarket."},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_2VHNllvTS_WBXZUISDfXs","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns 7-model ensemble temperature probability (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, HRRR, NAM, NBM) for a given city, date, and temperature threshold, calibrated to NWS ASOS stations used by Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the probability that Chicago's daily high will be greater than 73°F on April 26, 2026? I want the 7-model ensemble signal so I can decide whether to trade YES on the Kalshi temperature market.","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with the blended probability that the high temperature exceeds (or is less than) the threshold (prob_exceeds), mean high temperature in °F, standard deviation, trade signal (YES/NO/PASS), ensemble_empirical_prob, method_divergence (PASS forced if >0.15), confidence level (low/medium/high), rain probability, days out, target date, data source description, ensemble member count, and the outlier model name if any.","failureModes":["City not recognized or not mappable to an NWS ASOS settlement station — returns error or null result","Date too far in future beyond ensemble forecast horizon — reduced confidence or no data","Method divergence >0.15 forces trade signal to PASS even when probability is extreme","Missing required query parameters (city, date, threshold) — likely 400 bad request","Open-Meteo upstream model data unavailable — partial ensemble or degraded confidence"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need calibrated, multi-model ensemble temperature exceedance probabilities specifically aligned to NWS ASOS station coordinates used by Kalshi and Polymarket settlement. It is superior to single-model forecasts or generic weather APIs for prediction market trading decisions because it blends 80 ensemble members across 7 models, applies both empirical and Gumbel methods, detects method divergence, and explicitly outputs a trade signal (YES/NO/PASS). Not suitable for general weather lookup, precipitation forecasts, or non-temperature markets.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T00:46:07.598Z","isFirstParty":false}