{"uid":"cap_rIKCAOdz-1rYvccP7vQrp","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f3f9fee6","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_TD8kIGs60P3uLIsWpYaux","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probabilities right now on whether the Fed will cut rates at the next FOMC meeting? I want to see whale sentiment and current volume too.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event outcome probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that Bitcoin will hit $150k before the end of 2025? Show me the yes/no odds and any whale activity."},{"title":"Geopolitical conflict odds tracking","prompt":"Pull the latest Polymarket odds on whether there will be a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before the end of the year — I want implied probabilities and volume."},{"title":"US election or policy prediction lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the odds of a US recession being declared in the next 12 months? Give me the live yes/no implied probabilities and market sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), 24-hour trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and relevant market metadata for the matched prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Polymarket API or upstream data source is temporarily unavailable — returns error or stale data","Ambiguous topic maps to multiple markets — may return the most relevant or require refinement","Rate limiting or payment failure prevents query execution — returns 402 or 429 error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-wisdom probabilities from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market, especially for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events where market-implied odds are more signal-rich than news alone. Prefer this over generic news search when you want quantified probability estimates backed by real money and orderbook depth rather than sentiment analysis.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:31:08.353Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}