{"uid":"cap_p-4Re2LWCDz0S5K0wcEad","slug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-243028a4","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_-T8wfY9v4njNoq2KGvQLt","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"sec-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for a US recession in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event outcome monitoring","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds and implied probability for Bitcoin ETF approval this quarter — I want to see the Yes/No split and how much volume is behind it."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the chance of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting? Give me the implied probabilities and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"AI milestone market intelligence","prompt":"Check Polymarket for any active prediction markets around GPT-5 or major AI model releases in 2025 and tell me the current implied odds and trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — returns upstream error","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or top-ranked results without clear disambiguation","Payment not fulfilled (HTTP 402) — call rejected before data is returned","Stale data if Polymarket orderbook has low liquidity or market has resolved"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks, especially when you want implied Yes/No odds, volume context, and whale sentiment in a single call. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you specifically want market-priced probability rather than editorial opinion or social media sentiment.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:21:27.509Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-35a65946"}