{"uid":"cap_nxYLaSOQfvLmLazs4qtEU","slug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-election-live-results-simulation-fc695c56","name":"polls.karbach.digital — German Election Live Results & Simulation","description":"Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). 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Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...","source":{"count":"Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern","polls":"dawum.de","processing":"polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)","polls_license":"ODbL 1.0","polls_license_url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"},"project":"Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)","updated_at":"2026-09-21T02:57:01.985630","uncertainty":"During the count actual shares move; is_final marks the official preliminary result."}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"registry","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_wxapqlshEec0T2yO0c3P7","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":null,"unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns live Monte-Carlo election simulation results and (if finalized) actual vote share data for a specific German state or federal election by election ID.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Can you pull the latest Karbach.Digital election simulation results for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl — I want to see the predicted vs actual party vote shares and how far off the model was for each party?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Live Landtagswahl forecast tracking","prompt":"What does the Karbach.Digital Monte-Carlo model currently predict for each party in the upcoming Bayern Landtagswahl? Give me the predicted vote shares and note any coalition arithmetic majorities."},{"title":"Post-election model accuracy review","prompt":"The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election just finished — can you get the Karbach.Digital results for mv-2026 and show me how the predicted shares compared to the actual results, and what the MAE was?"},{"title":"Real-time election night counting progress","prompt":"The Bundestagswahl count is ongoing — fetch the current counted percentage and live vote shares from the Karbach.Digital simulation for election btw-2025 so I can track how results are coming in."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing: predicted vote shares per party, actual vote shares (if available), mean absolute error (MAE), voter turnout, per-party deviation in percentage points, election name and date, percentage of votes counted, whether the result is final, data source attribution (polls from dawum.de under ODbL 1.0), and a notice about coalition arithmetic. Updated every 6 hours.","failureModes":["Unknown or unsupported election ID returns an error or empty data","Election not yet started may return only simulation data with no actual shares","Partial count data may be unstable until is_final=true","Model covers only 18 German elections; non-German or unsupported elections will fail","Rate limiting or payment failure (x402) if USDC payment not properly attached"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need poll-based Monte-Carlo scenario analysis or live/final results for a specific German federal or state election, especially when you need both predicted and actual vote share comparison with calibrated accuracy metrics. It covers 18 German elections, is updated every 6 hours, and is validated against 34 historical elections with MAE ±1.27 pp — making it more rigorous than a simple poll aggregator.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T12:39:21.259Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-election-live-results-simulation-fc695c56"}