{"uid":"cap_nBLWNMXcAM8Wz1_T_ayOZ","slug":"x402-factory-blended-prediction-market-probability-ea436d60","name":"x402-factory Blended Prediction Market Probability","description":"Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"pathParams":{"type":"object","required":["slug"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string","pattern":"^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"}}},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":[],"properties":{"venue":{"enum":["kalshi","polymarket","blend"],"type":"string","default":"blend"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["data","meta"],"properties":{"data":{"type":"object","required":["slug","question","probability","per_venue","divergence","category","resolution_date","resolution_criteria_summary","last_move_1h"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string"},"category":{"type":"string"},"question":{"type":"string"},"per_venue":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["venue","market_id","implied_p","volume_24h_usd","liquidity_score"],"properties":{"venue":{"enum":["kalshi","polymarket"],"type":"string"},"implied_p":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"market_id":{"type":"string"},"volume_24h_usd":{"type":"number"},"liquidity_score":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0}},"additionalProperties":false}},"divergence":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"probability":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"last_move_1h":{"type":"number"},"resolution_date":{"type":"string"},"resolution_criteria_summary":{"type":"string"}},"additionalProperties":false},"meta":{"type":"object"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_qnprRx59zCKrtZb9RD_LZ","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a liquidity-weighted blended probability for a canonical prediction market slug across Kalshi and Polymarket, with per-venue breakdowns, cross-venue divergence, and 1-hour price move.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current blended probability for the prediction market slug 'us-recession-2025' — show me how Kalshi and Polymarket compare and whether it's moved in the last hour?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with: the canonical question text, a blended liquidity-weighted probability (0-1), an array of per-venue records (venue name, market ID, implied probability, 24h USD volume, liquidity score), the cross-venue divergence (0-1), the last 1-hour price move, resolution date, and a summary of resolution criteria. Resolved markets return HTTP 410 GONE with the outcome.","failureModes":["410 RESOLVED — market has already resolved, response includes the outcome","404 Not Found — slug does not match any known market; use /v1/probability/search to find valid slugs","402 Payment Required — x402 micropayment not provided or failed","400 Bad Request — slug format invalid (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$)","503/timeout — upstream venue APIs (Kalshi or Polymarket) temporarily unavailable","Single-venue response — only one venue has data for this slug, blend is one-sided"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a single authoritative probability estimate for a named prediction market event, especially when you want cross-venue consensus or want to detect arbitrage divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket. Prefer this over venue-specific endpoints when you want a liquidity-weighted blended view rather than raw per-venue odds. Use it after finding a slug via /v1/probability/search.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T01:06:56.554Z","isFirstParty":false}