{"uid":"cap_k_I8FdoBYmEj8hflOUhQ4","slug":"x402-factory-fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-probability-07494291","name":"x402-factory FOMC Dot Plot Median Shift Probability","description":"Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shift","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"slug":"fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09","topic":"next-fomc-dot-shift","category":"economics","question":"Will the September 2026 FOMC dot plot shift its median rate path?","per_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","implied_p":0.5666,"market_id":"KXFOMCDOTPLOTMED","volume_24h_usd":21469.26,"liquidity_score":0.776}],"divergence":0,"probability":0.5666,"current_slug":"fomc-dot-plot-median-shift-2026-09","last_move_1h":-0.0033,"topic_question":"Will the next FOMC dot plot shift its median?","resolution_date":"2026-09-16","rolls_to_next_at":"2026-09-16","resolution_criteria_summary":"Resolves YES if the SEP median federal funds projection changes from June."},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.next-fomc-dot-shift","sources":["kalshi","polymarket"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/evergreen/next-fomc-dot-shift","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:58.092Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Eqb4dlhQjfCZAtDbCagWX","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns live prediction-market probability that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate path, aggregated across venues like Kalshi and Polymarket.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are prediction markets currently pricing as the probability that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate path — and has the probability moved in the last hour?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-Fed meeting rate path briefing","prompt":"Before the FOMC meeting this week, what's the current market-implied probability that the dot plot will shift its median rate projection, and how liquid are those markets on Kalshi?"},{"title":"Macro signal for portfolio hedging","prompt":"I want to know if prediction markets think the Fed is likely to revise its median rate path at the next meeting — give me the latest cross-venue probability and any recent movement."},{"title":"Automated macro dashboard monitoring","prompt":"Pull the latest live probability that the next FOMC dot plot median will shift, including the 1-hour price move and when this market rolls to the next meeting date."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with the aggregated probability (0–1 scale) that the next FOMC dot plot will shift its median federal funds rate projection, per-venue breakdowns (implied probability, market ID, 24h volume in USD, liquidity score), 1-hour price move, divergence across venues, resolution date, the rolling date to the next meeting, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources (Kalshi, Polymarket), and a docs link.","failureModes":["HTTP 402 returned if no X-PAYMENT header is provided — response body contains USDC payment requirements for retry","Stale or unavailable market data if upstream prediction market venues are offline","Resolution date may lag if a new FOMC meeting date hasn't been listed yet and slug hasn't rolled","Low liquidity score may indicate thin markets with wide spreads, reducing signal reliability","Empty per_venue array if no active markets are found for the current FOMC cycle"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a real-time, cross-venue aggregated probability specifically for the FOMC dot plot median shift — not just general Fed rate hike/cut odds. It is preferable to scraping Kalshi or Polymarket individually because it normalizes and aggregates multiple venues, computes divergence, and provides a stable evergreen URL that automatically rolls to the next meeting.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T12:51:09.934Z","isFirstParty":false}