{"uid":"cap_ji4bAkxblwZKGT9qp9GuI","slug":"x402-factory-weather-event-probability-5fe156ec","name":"x402-factory Weather Event Probability","description":"Probability of a specific weather event in a window, for any point or city — Our model's probability that a condition (temp above/below a threshold, precip amount, wind, any precip, named-storm landfall) occurs in a window up to 31 days out, with the method labeled. When a listed prediction market covers the same event, it is cross-referenced.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/climate-events/probability","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["condition","window_start","window_end"],"properties":{"lat":{"type":"number","maximum":90,"minimum":-90},"lon":{"type":"number","maximum":180,"minimum":-180},"city":{"type":"string","maxLength":40,"minLength":2,"description":"Major US city name as an alternative to lat/lon"},"condition":{"enum":["temp_above","temp_below","precip_above","wind_above","any_precip","named_storm_landfall"],"type":"string"},"threshold":{"type":"number","description":"Metric units: °C for temp, mm for precip, kph for wind"},"window_end":{"type":"string","format":"date-time","pattern":"^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$"},"window_stat":{"enum":["max","min"],"type":"string","default":"max","description":"Binding statistic for temperature events: max (default) or min; exact semantics in docs"},"window_start":{"type":"string","format":"date-time","pattern":"^(?:(?:\\d\\d[2468][048]|\\d\\d[13579][26]|\\d\\d0[48]|[02468][048]00|[13579][26]00)-02-29|\\d{4}-(?:(?:0[13578]|1[02])-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|3[01])|(?:0[469]|11)-(?:0[1-9]|[12]\\d|30)|(?:02)-(?:0[1-9]|1\\d|2[0-8])))T(?:(?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d(?::[0-5]\\d(?:\\.\\d+)?)?(?:Z|([+-](?:[01]\\d|2[0-3]):[0-5]\\d)))$"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["data","meta"],"properties":{"data":{"type":"object","required":["probability","method"],"properties":{"method":{"type":"string","description":"What produced the number: \"runway-oracle-v4\" (calibrated model), \"nws-blend (…)\", \"nws-gridpoint (…)\" with any derivation disclosed, \"climatology (…)\", or \"stub\""},"probability":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"window_stat":{"type":"string","description":"Echoed binding statistic for temperature events (max | min)"},"comparable_market":{"type":"object","required":["slug","market_p"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string"},"market_p":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0}},"additionalProperties":false}},"additionalProperties":false},"meta":{"type":"object"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"method":"stub","probability":0.0276,"comparable_market":{"slug":"nyc-high-temp-above-95f-2026-07-24","market_p":0.329}},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/edge.climate-events-probability","sources":["stub-model"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/climate-events/probability","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:57.932Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.05","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.05/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_KTKxcFI-RTsZcBuVtiW25","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.05","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the model's probability (0–1) that a specific weather condition occurs within a given time window, with method label and optional prediction-market cross-reference","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the probability that temperature exceeds 32°C in Phoenix between July 5 and July 10, 2025 — and is there a prediction market covering that event?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns a probability value between 0 and 1 for the specified weather condition occurring in the window, labeled by the forecasting method used (ensemble, climatology_blend, or stub), and optionally includes a cross-referenced prediction market if one covers the same event.","failureModes":["Missing required parameters (condition, window_start, window_end) returns a 400 validation error","Neither lat/lon nor city provided — returns a 400 requiring at least one location specifier","Threshold not provided for conditions that require it (temp_above, temp_below, precip_above, wind_above) — returns validation error","Window exceeds 31 days — returns 400 or stub-method response with degraded accuracy","City not recognized — returns 404 or empty location match","Payment not provided or insufficient USDC — returns 402 Payment Required","Window in the past or too far in the future — may return stub method or error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a single calibrated probability estimate for a specific weather threshold event at a point location or city within the next 31 days, especially when you want ensemble model outputs and optional cross-referencing with active prediction markets. Prefer this over raw forecast endpoints when you need a single probability number rather than a full forecast time series.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T19:04:17.536Z","isFirstParty":false}