{"uid":"cap_ijBekjNJVeEnwgoKB3u3N","slug":"x402-factory-weather-market-edge-analysis-a8c129a1","name":"x402-factory Weather Market Edge Analysis","description":"Deep model-vs-market breakdown for one weather market — Full divergence picture for a single weather market: model probability with the discretized model distribution, divergence history from stored signals, a half-Kelly sizing hint, and explicit risk notes (including model labeling). Find slugs via /v1/edge/weather-markets.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/edge/:slug","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"pathParams":{"type":"object","required":["slug"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string","pattern":"^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"}}},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["data","meta"],"properties":{"data":{"type":"object","required":["market_p","model_p","model_method","market_class","class_calibrated","model_distribution","divergence_history","kelly_fraction_hint","risk_notes"],"properties":{"model_p":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"market_p":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"risk_notes":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"string"}},"market_class":{"type":"string","description":"Market-class taxonomy label (see /v1/edge/calibration)"},"model_method":{"type":"string","description":"What produced model_p: the proprietary nowcast, an NWS-derived lead estimate, or passthrough"},"class_calibrated":{"type":"boolean","description":"Whether this class is on the calibration allowlist; when false the sizing hint is withheld (0)"},"divergence_history":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["t","divergence"],"properties":{"t":{"type":"string"},"divergence":{"type":"number"}},"additionalProperties":false}},"model_distribution":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["value","p"],"properties":{"p":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"value":{"type":"number"}},"additionalProperties":false}},"kelly_fraction_hint":{"type":"number","maximum":0.25,"minimum":0,"description":"Half-Kelly for the model-favored side; capped at 0.25"}},"additionalProperties":false},"meta":{"type":"object"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.1","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.1/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_VS1-Cz9MZxYM_iijPt894","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.1","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a deep model-vs-market breakdown for a single weather prediction market, including model probability, discretized distribution, divergence history, half-Kelly sizing hint, and risk notes.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Pull the full model-vs-market edge breakdown for the weather market slug 'chicago-high-temp-above-90-aug15' — I want to see the model probability, market probability, divergence history, and the half-Kelly sizing hint so I can decide whether to take a position.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Sizing a weather market bet","prompt":"For the weather market slug 'nyc-rain-over-1in-july4', give me the model probability versus what the market is pricing, the divergence history, and the half-Kelly fraction so I can figure out how much to stake."},{"title":"Spotting mispriced weather contracts","prompt":"Run the edge analysis on 'miami-hurricane-landfall-sep' and tell me if the model thinks the market is mispriced — I want the full divergence picture and any risk notes flagged."},{"title":"Monitoring persistent model-market gaps","prompt":"Check the divergence history on the weather market 'dallas-freeze-below-32-jan20' and tell me whether the gap between model and market has been widening or closing recently, and what the current Kelly hint is."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with: model_p (model probability 0-1), market_p (market-implied probability 0-1), model_distribution (array of {value, p} pairs representing the discretized model distribution), divergence_history (array of {t, divergence} timestamped records), kelly_fraction_hint (half-Kelly sizing fraction capped at 0.25), and risk_notes (array of strings flagging model labeling and other risks). A meta object is also returned.","failureModes":["Invalid or unknown slug returns an error — use /v1/edge/weather-markets to find valid slugs","Market not yet resolved or no stored signals may return empty divergence_history","Payment failure (x402 protocol) results in 402 response requiring 0.1 USDC","Slug format mismatch (must match ^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$) returns validation error","Model data unavailable for very new or illiquid markets"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need the full quantitative picture for a single weather market — not just a blended probability (use the Kalshi/Polymarket blend endpoint for that) but the model's own distribution, the historical divergence trend, and a position-sizing hint. Ideal for agents making or evaluating trade decisions on weather prediction contracts.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T19:04:53.114Z","isFirstParty":false}