{"uid":"cap_i_ULLxndz0SJq6J3PkjR1","slug":"market2000-xyz-backtest-historical-analog-forward-return-distribution-7b04b700","name":"market2000.xyz Backtest — Historical Analog Forward-Return Distribution","description":"Backtest — historical-analog forward-return distribution for a ticker's recent shape.\n\nHOW TO CALL:\n  GET /api/backtest?ticker=BTC&lookback_days=20&forward_days=30\n\nPARAMETERS:\n  ticker        — asset symbol (required)\n  lookback_days — pattern window, 5–60 (default 20)\n  forward_days  — forward horizon, 7–90 (default 30)\n  min_return / max_return — optional analog filters (fraction)\n\nRESPONSE: win rate, median, tails, sample size over the forward horizon.\n\nPRICING: $0.10 per call.","url":"https://market2000.xyz/api/backtest","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method","queryParams"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["ticker"],"properties":{"ticker":{"type":"string","description":"Asset symbol (BTC, xyz:NVDA, AAPL, SPY)"},"max_return":{"type":"number","description":"Optional analog filter, upper bound (fraction)"},"min_return":{"type":"number","description":"Optional analog filter, lower bound (fraction)"},"forward_days":{"type":"integer","default":30,"description":"Forward horizon (7–90)"},"lookback_days":{"type":"integer","default":20,"description":"Pattern window (5–60)"}}}}},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.1","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.1/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_0YitYN3b_bAoN1LvVdxcn","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.1","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Finds historical price-pattern analogs for a ticker's recent shape and returns the forward-return distribution (win rate, median, tails, sample size) over a specified horizon.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Run a historical analog backtest on BTC using the last 20 days of price action and tell me the win rate, median return, and tail outcomes for the next 30 days.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-trade conviction check for crypto","prompt":"Before I buy ETH, can you backtest its current 20-day price shape against history and tell me how often it went up over the next 30 days, what the median return was, and what the downside tail looks like?"},{"title":"Equity pattern analysis before earnings","prompt":"Run a 14-day lookback backtest on NVDA and show me the historical forward-return distribution for the next 21 days — I want to know the win rate and the 10th/90th percentile outcomes."},{"title":"Filtered analog search for strong setups","prompt":"Find historical BTC analogs matching the last 30 days of price action, but only keep analogs where the forward 60-day return was at least 10%, and tell me the sample size and median return."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a statistical summary of historical forward-return analogs: win rate (fraction of positive outcomes), median return, tail percentiles (e.g. 10th/90th), and the number of matching historical analog periods over the specified forward horizon.","failureModes":["Invalid or unrecognized ticker symbol returns an error or empty analog set","lookback_days or forward_days outside allowed ranges (5–60 and 7–90 respectively) may return a validation error","min_return/max_return filters too restrictive may result in a very small or zero sample size","Insufficient historical data for a recently listed asset yields low or zero sample count","Payment failure (x402) returns 402 status before any data is returned"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a data-driven, historically grounded probability distribution for a ticker's near-term returns based on pattern similarity — not a point forecast or a sentiment signal. It is especially useful for quantifying conviction before a trade, sizing a position, or filtering for historically favorable setups. Prefer it over generic forecast APIs when the user wants win rates, tail risks, and sample-size transparency from real historical analogs.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-16T00:44:54.171Z","isFirstParty":false}