{"uid":"cap_hc8MQS7eA0Go8Zx9ahJCv","slug":"oracle-the-undesirables-com-b4836b78","name":"Stochastic Monte Carlo Price Simulator (Heston/Merton/Kou) for TCG Cards & Tokenized Assets","description":"Predict the future market value of any collectible trading card with a conformal-calibrated risk forecast (default): regime-aware split-conformal bands fit on real holdout residuals, returning calibrated forecast percentiles (5th–95th), honest VaR/CVaR, and Safe-Hold/Momentum letter grades. Monte Carlo models (GBM / Merton Jump-Diffusion with Poisson jumps) are available opt-in via model=. Covers Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, sports cards, and any tokenized real-world asset.","url":"https://oracle.the-undesirables.com/api/v1/simulate","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":null,"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"status":"ok","forecast":{"50th_percentile":224.5,"95th_percentile":412.1}}},"example":{"request":{"input":{"type":"http","method":"GET","queryParams":{"days":30,"model":"heston","card_name":"Charizard Base Set PSA 8","simulations":500,"current_price":5000}}},"response":{"data":{"days":30,"model":"geometric_brownian_motion","card_name":"Charizard Base Set PSA 8","simulations":500,"model_params":{"drift_mu":0.03,"diffusion_sigma":0.4},"param_source":"default_tcg_priors","risk_metrics":{"VaR_95":4112.7231,"CVaR_95":3929.4773,"VaR_95_pct":-17.75,"CVaR_95_pct":-21.41,"interpretation":"95% VaR: There is a 5% chance the price drops below $4112.72 (-17.75%) over 30 days. Expected Shortfall (CVaR): If that tail event occurs, the average loss lands at $3929.48 (-21.41%)."},"current_price":5000,"forecast_percentiles":{"5th":4112.7231,"25th":4581.7529,"50th":4979.5083,"75th":5416.4478,"95th":6040.9673}},"tool":"monte_carlo","price":"$0.015","status":"ok"}},"exampleRequest":{"days":30,"model":"heston","card_name":"Charizard Base Set PSA 8","simulations":500,"current_price":5000},"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_D1U_yVG3fpuDO3oyZEHtY","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Runs Monte Carlo price simulations using Heston, Merton, or Kou stochastic models to project future price trajectories and percentile distributions for tokenized real-world assets and physical trading cards.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Can you run a Heston Monte Carlo simulation for a Charizard Base Set PSA 10 currently priced at $8,500 over 60 days with 1,000 simulations, and show me the full percentile price distribution?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Grading my trading card portfolio risk","prompt":"I'm holding a bunch of PSA-graded Magic cards worth about $50K total. Can you run a Monte Carlo forecast for the next quarter and give me the 5th and 95th percentile prices so I know my downside and upside?"},{"title":"Evaluating a tokenized real estate investment","prompt":"I'm considering buying into a tokenized commercial property asset. Can you simulate the price distribution over six months using the Merton jump-diffusion model to see what kind of volatility swings I should expect?"},{"title":"Planning a collectible card sale strategy","prompt":"I have a Yu-Gi-Oh card that's currently valued at $3,200. Run a 90-day price simulation and tell me if the momentum grade suggests I should hold or sell based on the projected price ranges."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object containing the asset name, model used, simulation count, day horizon, data source, and a percentile price distribution (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th percentile projected prices), along with call price ($0.015) and status.","failureModes":["Invalid or unsupported model name returns an error","Missing required query parameters (days, current_price, card_name) cause a bad request","Extremely high simulation counts may time out or return degraded results","Unknown or misspelled card names may fall back to inline_fallback source with generic volatility assumptions","Network/service unavailability returns a non-200 status"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need stochastic price projections with percentile distributions specifically for physical trading cards (Pokémon, MTG) or tokenized real-world assets, and want to choose between Heston, Merton, or Kou models. It is best for risk analysis, scenario planning, or valuation range estimation on collectible or RWA assets rather than mainstream equities or crypto tokens with deep market data.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T12:37:38.765Z","isFirstParty":false}