{"uid":"cap_gi4gMIjajjUnawSEit8iI","slug":"macropulse-intermarket-cross-asset-synthesis-b8fd12d3","name":"MacroPulse Intermarket Cross-Asset Synthesis","description":"Cross-asset intermarket synthesis for macro agents — bond yields, equities, commodities and FX read together to surface the dominant regime and the divergences that tend to lead price.","url":"https://macropulse-alpha.vercel.app/api/intermarket","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"lang":{"type":"string","description":"e.g. en, es, fr, de, ja, zh, ko, pt, ar (default: en; not strictly validated — any language is forwarded to the model)"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"errors":{"type":"object","description":"Documented error responses, keyed by HTTP status code","additionalProperties":{"type":"object","required":["description"],"properties":{"example":{"type":"object"},"description":{"type":"string"}}}},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"usd_index":104.8,"gold_signal":"safe-haven demand rising","risk_on_off":"mild risk-off","regime_signal":"late-cycle — reduce equity overweight","bonds_equities":"negative correlation restored","copper_gold_ratio":0.0019}},"example":{"request":{"session":"london"},"response":{"raw":"{\n  \"generated_at_utc\": \"2026-06-12T04:25:53Z\",\n  \"headline\": \"Risk-ON paradox: Nasdaq surges +3.38% while VIX holds elevated at 22.22 and 10Y yields press 4.55% — triple divergence demands caution from bulls\",\n  \"asset_snapshot\": {\n    \"us_10y_yield\": \"4.55%\",\n    \"us_2y_yield\": \"4.13%\",\n    \"yield_curve\": \"normalizing\",\n    \"vix\": \"22.22\",\n    \"risk_sentiment\": \"neutral\",\n    \"gold\": \"Not available (FRED gold series not returned)\",\n    \"wti_crude\": \"$95.00/bbl\",\n    \"dxy_proxy\": \"Bearish USD — EUR/USD 1.1533, GBP/USD 1.336 both elevated; USD/JPY 160.26 keeps JPY under pressure; DXY proxy points to soft/declining dollar\"\n  },\n  \"key_relationships\": [\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"Rising 10Y Yields vs Equity Rally\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"QQQ +3.38% on a day when 10Y yield holds 4.55% — equities are ignoring the cost-of-capital headwind entirely\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"When 10Y yields hold above 4.5%, growth/tech equities typically face valuation compression; a +3%+ single-day rally under these yield conditions is anomalous\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": true,\n      \"implication\": \"Either the equity rally is liquidity/momentum-driven and unsustainable at these yield levels, or the market is pricing a rapid Fed cut cycle that bond markets are not yet confirming. Watch for reversal if yields do not fall to validate equity pricing.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"VIX vs Equity Price Action\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"VIX at 22.22 is elevated (fear zone threshold typically 20+) while equities printed a strong +3.38% day — VIX failed to collapse on the rally\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"A genuine risk-on equity surge of +3%+ would ordinarily crush VIX toward 15–17; VIX stubbornly holding 22+ signals hedgers are NOT convinced by the rally\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": true,\n      \"implication\": \"Institutional hedging remains active. The equity rally may be short-covering or momentum-driven rather than genuine risk appetite recovery. High VIX with rising equities is a classic setup preceding sharp reversals.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"USD weakness vs Yield Differential\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"EUR/USD at 1.1533 and GBP/USD at 1.3360 suggest a weak dollar despite US 10Y at 4.55% — normally high US yields attract dollar inflows\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"US 10Y at 4.55% with Fed Funds at 3.63% (still above neutral) should support USD via carry and capital inflows from rate differentials\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": true,\n      \"implication\": \"Dollar weakness despite high yields signals that global investors may be reducing US asset exposure (fiscal risk, debt ceiling concerns, or geopolitical reallocation). This is a bearish structural USD signal even if short-term yields remain supportive.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"Oil Prices ($95 WTI) vs Risk Sentiment\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"WTI at $95 is historically high and inflationary — yet equities rallied hard and risk sentiment is labeled neutral-to-on\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"WTI above $90–95 typically acts as a tax on consumers and corporate margins, suppressing equity multiples and stoking inflation expectations\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": true,\n      \"implication\": \"Either equity markets are discounting oil's inflationary impact, or energy sector gains are masking broader weakness. Commodity-linked currencies (CAD, NOK, AUD) should be beneficiaries. Sustained $95+ WTI will complicate Fed easing timeline.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"Yield Curve Normalization vs Fed Funds Rate\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"2Y at 4.13% vs 10Y at 4.55% = +42bps spread — curve is steepening/normalizing after prolonged inversion, with Fed Funds still at 3.63%\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"Curve normalization from inversion historically signals either a soft-landing scenario OR the early innings of a recession becoming visible (bear steepening)\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": false,\n      \"implication\": \"The direction of normalization matters critically. If the 10Y is rising faster than the 2Y (bear steepening), this is NOT bond-market optimism — it signals fiscal/inflation premium building. At 4.55% on 10Y with breakeven at 2.29%, real yields (~2.26%) remain restrictive.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"relationship\": \"USD/JPY at 160.26 vs BOJ Policy Expectations\",\n      \"current_behavior\": \"USD/JPY holding 160+ is extreme yen weakness — well above BOJ's historically defended levels near 150–155\",\n      \"historical_norm\": \"USD/JPY above 155–160 has historically triggered BOJ verbal or actual intervention\",\n      \"divergence_signal\": true,\n      \"implication\": \"Yen carry trades are heavily extended. Any BOJ hawkish surprise or US yield drop could trigger violent JPY short-covering. This is a major tail risk for JPY shorts and a potential systemic unwind trigger (similar to Aug 2024 dynamics).\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"bond_equity_signal\": \"Bond markets are NOT corroborating the equity rally. The 10Y yield holding at 4.55% means the bond market sees no imminent Fed pivot — real yields (~2.26%) remain deeply restrictive. The equity market's +3.38% surge appears detached from bond-market reality. Historically, when bonds and equities diverge this sharply, equities tend to revert toward the bond market's implied valuation framework within 2–4 weeks. FX traders should treat USD/JPY and rate-sensitive pairs with heightened volatility risk.\",\n  \"commodity_fx_signal\": \"WTI at $95 and Brent at $97.46 are strongly bullish for commodity-linked currencies. CAD should benefit directly via energy export revenues. NOK (not in FRED feed but Brent-linked) is a structural buy. AUD benefits indirectly via improved terms of trade and risk-on commodity flows. However, if $95 oil sustains, it reignites inflation fears globally — this could eventually force commodity-currency central banks (RBA, BOC) to remain hawkish longer, providing additional yield support for AUD and CAD vs EUR and JPY.\",\n  \"leading_indicators\": [\n    \"USD/JPY at 160.26 — extreme yen weakness historically leads to either BOJ intervention or a violent carry unwind within 1–3 weeks; monitor BOJ meeting communications closely as a leading FX volatility signal\",\n    \"VIX holding 22+ despite equity rally — this 'sticky fear' pattern has historically preceded equity consolidation or pullback within 2–3 weeks, which would trigger USD safe-haven demand and JPY/CHF buying\",\n    \"10Y breakeven inflation at 2.29% while WTI presses $95 — oil-driven inflation re-pricing in breakevens typically leads Fed communication shifts by 3–4 weeks, delaying any dovish pivot and keeping USD supported on dips\"\n  ],\n  \"divergences_to_watch\": [\n    {\n      \"divergence\": \"QQQ +3.38% single-day surge while VIX remains stubbornly above 22 — equity price and implied volatility are moving in the same direction (both elevated/active), which is contradictory\",\n      \"resolution_scenarios\": [\n        \"VIX collapses toward 17–18 confirming the equity rally as genuine risk-on — bullish continuation, sell USD vs risk currencies\",\n        \"Equity rally fades and QQQ gives back gains, VIX spikes toward 25–28 — risk-off, buy JPY and USD","meta":{"av_symbols":1,"news_items":0,"fred_series":14},"disclaimer":"For informational purposes only. 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