{"uid":"cap_gQ8oVDa9l9yen9MFHxQ1B","slug":"vextorium-polymarket-crypto-implied-probability-distribution-ef420add","name":"Vextorium Polymarket Crypto Implied Probability Distribution","description":"Implied probability distribution of a crypto price from Polymarket ladder markets (\"Will BTC be above X on date D?\"): probability for each price level and date and the implied median. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.","url":"https://api.vextorium.com/polymarket-precio-cripto-pago?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"activo":{"type":"string","description":"bitcoin, ethereum, solana, xrp"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"nota":"Probabilidades implícitas por el mercado; no son predicciones garantizadas. Fuente: Polymarket.","activo":"bitcoin","eventos":[{"cierre":"2026-10-02T21:00:00Z","evento":"Bitcoin above ___ on October 2, 5PM ET?","niveles":[{"nivel":82200,"prob_por_encima_pct":50},{"nivel":82400,"prob_por_encima_pct":50}],"mediana_implicita_aprox":82200},{"cierre":"2026-10-03T16:00:00Z","evento":"Bitcoin above ___ on October 3?","niveles":[{"nivel":74000,"prob_por_encima_pct":99.95},{"nivel":76000,"prob_por_encima_pct":99.9}],"mediana_implicita_aprox":86000}]}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.004","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.004/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.004","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.004","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_prB2ymd3FmtjRMyDmYg-8","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.004","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the implied probability distribution of a crypto asset's price from Polymarket ladder markets, including per-level probabilities and an implied median price, for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What does Polymarket's ladder market imply about the probability distribution for Bitcoin prices — show me the per-level probabilities and the implied median.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto options desk price calibration","prompt":"Pull the Polymarket-implied probability distribution for Ethereum, including the probability of being above each price level and the implied median, so I can calibrate our options pricing model."},{"title":"Prediction market research for altcoins","prompt":"What is the Polymarket crowd implying about Solana's price distribution — give me the probability at each ladder level and the implied median price for the nearest upcoming event."},{"title":"Portfolio risk assessment via prediction markets","prompt":"For XRP, what does Polymarket's ladder market say about the chances it's above key price levels by the next settlement date, and what's the implied median?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object with the asset name, a disclaimer note, and an array of events. Each event includes the event title, settlement date/time, an array of price levels with their probability-of-being-above percentage, and an approximate implied median price derived from the ladder market probabilities.","failureModes":["Unsupported asset string returns an error or empty result — only 'bitcoin', 'ethereum', 'solana', 'xrp' are valid","Polymarket may have no active ladder markets for the requested asset at time of call, returning an empty events array","Stale or low-liquidity markets may produce wide probability bands or unreliable medians","Missing 'activo' field in request body may cause validation error","Network or upstream Polymarket API unavailability causes failure"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need market-implied probability distributions for crypto prices derived from real prediction market liquidity on Polymarket, rather than model-based forecasts. Prefer it over on-chain price feeds when you want crowd-sourced probability estimates across multiple future price levels, not just current spot prices. Ideal for options pricing, risk analysis, or research that requires a probability distribution rather than a point estimate.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-29T12:36:00.521Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"vextorium-polymarket-crypto-implied-probability-distribution-ef420add"}