{"uid":"cap_g35HWpk6IIKOsyARRaPlj","slug":"mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-74f679a6","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_HA0eM7zAmSqi_kUC1H5p-","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://mcp-compiler.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now that the Fed cuts interest rates in September — include volume and whale sentiment if available?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that Ethereum ETF gets approved this quarter? Show me the Yes/No odds and trading volume."},{"title":"Macro recession odds lookup","prompt":"Check the live prediction market odds on Polymarket for a US recession happening in 2025 — what are traders implying right now?"},{"title":"AI milestone market sentiment","prompt":"What are the Polymarket odds and whale sentiment for AGI being achieved before 2027? I want the latest live numbers from the orderbook."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities expressed as percentages, current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the queried event topic. The response reflects real-time market participant consensus on the likelihood of the specified event occurring.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the queried topic — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return the most prominent or first match","Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting — returns error or stale data","Very niche or recently-created markets may have low liquidity, making probability estimates unreliable","Payment of $0.01 USDC via x402 required per call — missing or failed payment returns 402 error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as priced by actual money on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment or static forecasts when you want market-implied odds reflecting the financial conviction of traders and whales. Ideal for agents that need live probability inputs for decision-making, briefings, or monitoring market sentiment on binary outcomes.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:25:43.861Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"mcp-compiler-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f961a087"}