{"uid":"cap_g1J5ARwTE4C0RfuAczIbU","slug":"macropulse-macro-regime-classifier-4cfc6765","name":"MacroPulse Macro Regime Classifier","description":"Macro regime classifier for multi-asset agents — labels the current environment (risk-on/off, reflation, stagflation, tightening) and its directional implications for FX, rates and equities.","url":"https://macropulse-alpha.vercel.app/api/regime","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"lang":{"type":"string","description":"e.g. en, es, fr, de, ja, zh, ko, pt, ar (default: en; not strictly validated — any language is forwarded to the model)"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"errors":{"type":"object","description":"Documented error responses, keyed by HTTP status code","additionalProperties":{"type":"object","required":["description"],"properties":{"example":{"type":"object"},"description":{"type":"string"}}}},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"fx_signal":"favour USD, CHF; avoid high-beta EM","confidence":0.74,"yield_curve":"inverted","equity_signal":"reduce risk","current_regime":"late-cycle expansion","leading_indicators":"deteriorating"}},"example":{"request":{"session":"london"},"response":{"raw":"{\n  \"generated_at_utc\": \"2026-06-18T05:35:50Z\",\n  \"regime\": \"transitional\",\n  \"regime_confidence\": \"medium\",\n  \"regime_summary\": \"The macro environment sits at a crossroads between a late-cycle soft landing and early recessionary pressure, with a flat yield curve (+38bps), moderating inflation (breakeven at 2.26%), and softening labor markets (unemployment 4.3%) creating conflicting signals. The USD faces structural headwinds from elevated EUR/USD (1.1573) and strong GBP/USD (1.3414), while USD/JPY (160.24) remains dangerously elevated against a backdrop of rising JGB yields (2.65%), creating meaningful JPY repatriation and carry unwind risk. Volatility is contained (VIX 16.41) and oil firm (WTI $84.65), but the directional break in either the yield curve or USD/JPY could rapidly reprice the regime.\",\n  \"key_signals\": [\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"VIX\",\n      \"current_value\": \"16.41\",\n      \"signal\": \"Below-average volatility suggests markets are not pricing acute stress. Mild risk-on bias but not euphoric — consistent with cautious equilibrium rather than clear directional regime.\",\n      \"weight\": \"moderate\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"10Y-2Y Yield Spread\",\n      \"current_value\": \"+0.38%\",\n      \"signal\": \"Curve has re-steepened from inversion but remains flat. Transition zone — neither recessionary inversion nor expansionary steepness. No strong structural USD signal from curve alone.\",\n      \"weight\": \"moderate\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"10-Year Breakeven Inflation\",\n      \"current_value\": \"2.26%\",\n      \"signal\": \"Inflation expectations well-anchored near Fed target. Disinflationary drift in progress — reduces urgency for further Fed hikes and limits USD upside from inflation premium.\",\n      \"weight\": \"strong\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"Fed Funds Rate\",\n      \"current_value\": \"3.63%\",\n      \"signal\": \"Fed has already eased from peak. Real rates positive but declining. Policy pivot is underway — a structural USD negative over the medium term as rate differential advantage compresses.\",\n      \"weight\": \"strong\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"USD/JPY\",\n      \"current_value\": \"160.24\",\n      \"signal\": \"Critically elevated. Japan JGB 10Y at 2.65% (+13bps) signals BOJ normalization accelerating. Carry unwind and JPY repatriation risk is the single biggest tail risk in FX markets currently.\",\n      \"weight\": \"strong\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"EUR/USD\",\n      \"current_value\": \"1.1573\",\n      \"signal\": \"EUR/USD at multi-month highs reflects broad USD softness and European macro stabilization. DXY proxy is bearish — dollar losing relative appeal as Fed divergence with ECB narrows.\",\n      \"weight\": \"strong\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"GBP/USD\",\n      \"current_value\": \"1.3414\",\n      \"signal\": \"Cable at elevated levels reinforces the dollar-bearish DXY proxy read. GBP benefiting from BOE holding rates higher for longer relative to Fed trajectory.\",\n      \"weight\": \"moderate\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"WTI Crude Oil\",\n      \"current_value\": \"$84.65\",\n      \"signal\": \"Oil firm and elevated — supports commodity-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) and keeps inflation risks alive. Not recessionary in oil pricing; more consistent with soft landing or mild stagflation risk.\",\n      \"weight\": \"moderate\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"Unemployment Rate\",\n      \"current_value\": \"4.3%\",\n      \"signal\": \"Labor market softening — up from cycle lows. Not recessionary yet but trending in a direction that validates Fed easing path and caps USD bullish conviction.\",\n      \"weight\": \"moderate\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"indicator\": \"USD/CNY (PBoC Reference Rate)\",\n      \"current_value\": \"6.7626\",\n      \"signal\": \"CNY relatively stable and firm. PBoC managing orderly appreciation — no CNY devaluation signal, reduces EM contagion risk and supports risk-on sentiment in Asian markets.\",\n      \"weight\": \"weak\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"regime_characteristics\": [\n    \"Fed easing cycle in motion with real rates still positive but declining — rate differential advantage for USD narrowing\",\n    \"Yield curve flat and re-steepening from prior inversion, signaling post-recessionary transition rather than active downturn\",\n    \"Inflation expectations anchored near 2.26% — disinflationary forces dominant despite firm oil, reducing stagflation premium\",\n    \"USD/JPY at 160+ with rising JGB yields creates asymmetric downside risk via JPY carry unwind — largest FX tail risk in the current setup\",\n    \"Broad USD weakness confirmed by DXY proxy (EUR/USD 1.1573, GBP/USD 1.3414) — dollar losing structural support as Fed pivot deepens\"\n  ],\n  \"asset_implications\": {\n    \"usd\": \"Bearish with medium conviction. Fed easing cycle, anchored inflation expectations, and elevated EUR/USD/GBP/USD all point to ongoing USD depreciation. The only USD upside catalyst would be a sharp risk-off shock or Fed pause signal. Rate differential compression is the dominant structural theme. DXY proxy is unambiguously soft.\",\n    \"gold\": \"Bullish. Declining real yields (Fed cutting with inflation stable near 2.26%), broad USD weakness, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty provide a strong tailwind. Gold historically performs well in transitional regimes where rate differentials compress. No funding stress to force liquidation.\",\n    \"equities\": \"Cautiously bullish. Low VIX (16.41), contained inflation, and a Fed on an easing path are equity-supportive. However, softening unemployment (4.3%) and flat yield curve introduce late-cycle caution. Risk-on but not aggressively so — quality and defensive tilt warranted over high-beta growth.\",\n    \"bonds\": \"Bullish duration. Fed cutting cycle + disinflationary breakevens (2.26%) + softening labor market = favorable backdrop for longer-dated Treasuries. 10Y at 4.43% offers real yield with downside rate risk if growth slows further. Curve steepening trade (long 10Y, short 2Y) has merit.\",\n    \"risk_currencies\": \"Bullish AUD, NZD, CAD. Firm oil ($84.65 WTI) supports CAD. Low VIX and risk-on disposition supports AUD and NZD. Stable CNY reduces EM contagion risk. EM FX broadly constructive in a dollar-bearish, low-volatility regime. Watch for JPY carry unwind spillover as primary risk-off threat.\",\n    \"safe_havens\": \"JPY strongly bullish — asymmetric setup. Rising JGB yields (2.65%, +13bps) with USD/JPY at 160.24 creates one of the most stretched carry trades in recent history. BOJ normalization is accelerating, and any risk sentiment deterioration will amplify JPY strength violently. CHF neutral-to-bullish; less acute catalyst but benefits from USD weakness and any European risk events.\"\n  },\n  \"top_pairs_to_watch\": [\n    {\n      \"pair\": \"USD/JPY\",\n      \"bias\": \"bearish\",\n      \"regime_reasoning\": \"The highest-conviction trade in the current regime. USD/JPY at 160.24 is stretched against a BOJ normalization backdrop with JGB 10Y rising to 2.65% (+13bps). Fed easing + BOJ tightening = rate differential compression from both ends. Carry unwind risk is non-linear — any risk-off catalyst or BOJ communication shift could trigger a rapid 5-10 figure correction. Short USD/JPY is the most regime-aligned macro trade.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"pair\": \"EUR/USD\",\n      \"bias\": \"bullish\",\n      \"regime_reasoning\":","meta":{"news_items":0,"usd_stress":"normal","fred_series":14,"yield_curve":"flat","capital_flows":"flat"},"disclaimer":"For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.","parse_error":true,"generated_at":"2026-06-18T05:36:32.049Z"}},"exampleRequest":{"session":"london"},"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.1","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"settled","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.1/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_3h61mEVQ8QheLlWMTesID","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.1","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Classifies the current macroeconomic regime and its implications for FX markets and asset classes","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current macro regime right now — are we in a risk-on, risk-off, inflationary, or recessionary environment — and what does that mean for FX and asset positioning?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"A structured classification of the current macroeconomic regime (e.g. risk-on, risk-off, stagflation, reflation) along with its specific implications for FX pairs and broader asset classes such as equities, bonds, and commodities.","failureModes":["Service unavailable if underlying macro data sources are stale or unreachable","402 Payment Required if x402 payment header is missing or payment fails","Rate limiting or quota exhaustion returning 429 status","Ambiguous or transitional regime may return lower-confidence classification"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a high-level macro regime label and its directional FX implications before making currency allocation decisions. Prefer this over the sentiment or rates-differential endpoints when you want the broadest macro context rather than pair-specific signals.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T06:34:08.949Z","isFirstParty":false}