{"uid":"cap_fbVb8XmKBedUAUpsnWdYM","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-86e4a80b","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_M96jgJyXAKiu2rK5Y0o5e","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events given a topic keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate cut happening this year — including current trading volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 US presidential election — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and whether big traders are leaning one way?"},{"title":"Crypto regulatory event bet tracking","prompt":"What's Polymarket saying right now about the chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved — show me the live orderbook odds, volume, and whale sentiment?"},{"title":"Geopolitical risk sentiment monitoring","prompt":"Pull live Polymarket odds on whether there will be a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict this quarter, including trading volume and implied probabilities."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current orderbook depth, 24h or rolling trading volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals indicating directional bias from high-volume participants.","failureModes":["Topic keyword too vague or ambiguous returns no matching markets or a generic fallback","Polymarket API unavailability or rate limiting causes delayed or empty responses","Very niche or newly created markets may have insufficient orderbook data for reliable implied probability calculation","Payment not completed (HTTP 402) results in no data returned","Topic matches multiple unrelated markets leading to blended or incorrect odds"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market. It is ideal when you want not just a price but implied directional probability, volume context, and whale sentiment — rather than a simple news summary or historical data query. Prefer it over general news APIs when the user wants to know what the market believes will happen, not just what has happened.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:24:17.069Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}