{"uid":"cap_fPkFFprA0DKUb0NktkMcC","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-550909b1","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Th3OXUvh_MFuGk55Kdw8G","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $100k by end of year — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that Ethereum ETF gets approved this month, and how much volume is behind that market?"},{"title":"Macro Fed rate cut odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now — what are traders pricing in for the Fed cutting rates at the next FOMC meeting? Give me the Yes/No probabilities and any whale activity."},{"title":"AI milestone prediction tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket say about the chances of GPT-5 or a major frontier AI model launching before July? I want the live odds and sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the relevant prediction market event.","failureModes":["Topic keyword too vague — no matching Polymarket market found, returns empty or null results","Polymarket API upstream outage — service unavailable error","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most liquid market or require refinement","Payment failure via x402 — call not executed if USDC balance is insufficient","Rate limiting or timeout if Polymarket data feed is slow"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money, orderbook depth, and whale positioning. Best for agents tracking event risk in real time.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:34:19.500Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}