{"uid":"cap_es4XZY3G_ZFEOP6TpuI-2","slug":"delx-commerce-implied-probability-from-yes-no-counts-57686c11","name":"Delx Commerce — Implied Probability from Yes/No Counts","description":"Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.","url":"https://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/implied-from-yes-no?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"no":{"type":"number","description":"Input field: no."},"yes":{"type":"number","description":"Input field: yes."}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"p_no":0.5961538461538461,"p_yes":0.4038461538461538,"schema":"delx/util-implied-from-yes-no/v1","overround":0.04000000000000004}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_4sIFNxVHiXh0vFVVkQSqE","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Converts raw yes/no vote or bet counts into implied probabilities, removing the overround to produce fair market probabilities.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Convert a yes count of 52 and a no count of 76 into implied probabilities — I need both the p_yes and p_no values, plus the overround.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Prediction market probability normalization","prompt":"I have a binary prediction market with 104 yes contracts and 156 no contracts — what are the implied probabilities for each outcome, and what's the overround baked in?"},{"title":"Binary poll result conversion","prompt":"Our survey got 312 yes responses and 218 no responses. Convert those counts into implied probabilities so I can see the fair percentage for each side."},{"title":"Sports betting odds to probability","prompt":"A betting market shows 67 yes bets and 48 no bets — can you work out the implied probability for yes and no, and tell me what the overround is?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with p_yes (implied probability of yes outcome), p_no (implied probability of no outcome), overround (the total excess probability above 1.0, indicating the market's margin), and a schema identifier string. Example: p_yes≈0.404, p_no≈0.596, overround≈0.04.","failureModes":["Missing or non-numeric yes/no values returns a validation error","Both yes and no equal zero causes a division-by-zero or undefined probability","Payment not provided or insufficient USDC results in HTTP 402 Payment Required","Negative input values may produce nonsensical probabilities"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you have raw binary vote, contract, or bet counts and need to derive fair implied probabilities with the overround explicitly surfaced. Ideal for prediction markets, binary polls, or sports betting analysis where you want a quick, cheap, verifiable computation without building the math yourself. Prefer this over general statistics APIs when you specifically need the implied probability decomposition pattern with overround, paid per-call with no signup via x402/USDC.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-01T00:53:59.935Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"delx-commerce-implied-probability-from-yes-no-counts-57686c11"}