{"uid":"cap_eO4t5uLzlHAKdmh0oW_VP","slug":"mycelia-signal-fed-rate-probability-distribution-813c5077","name":"Mycelia Signal – Fed Rate Probability Distribution","description":"Fed rate probability distribution — market-implied FOMC rate path from Kalshi + Polymarket. Entropy, expected change, surprise, prob cut/hold/hike per meeting — Ed25519 signed attestation","url":"https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/prediction/fed","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.5","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.5/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.5","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.5","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_HEyb1tZiIg2YiyqVcM_sS","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.5","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns market-implied FOMC rate path probabilities (cut/hold/hike per meeting), entropy, expected change, and surprise metrics derived from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets, delivered as an Ed25519-signed attestation.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current market-implied probability of the Fed cutting, holding, or hiking rates at the next FOMC meeting — including entropy and expected change — signed and sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-FOMC trading decision support","prompt":"Before the next Fed meeting, pull the latest prediction market probabilities for a cut, hold, or hike — including the entropy score and expected rate change — so I can size my bond position accordingly."},{"title":"Macro briefing for an investment memo","prompt":"I'm writing an investment memo and need the current FOMC rate path implied by Kalshi and Polymarket — give me the probability of a cut, hold, or hike per meeting plus any surprise signal, with a signed attestation I can cite."},{"title":"Automated Fed policy monitor for an AI agent","prompt":"Every morning before market open, check the market-implied Fed rate probabilities from prediction markets and alert me if the probability of a cut at the next meeting has shifted more than 10 percentage points since yesterday."}],"resultDescription":"A signed JSON payload containing: per-meeting probability of rate cut, hold, and hike; expected rate change in basis points; Shannon entropy of the distribution (uncertainty measure); a surprise metric; and an Ed25519 cryptographic attestation verifying data integrity and origin. The data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets.","failureModes":["Prediction market data unavailable or stale — upstream Kalshi/Polymarket API outage","Payment not received — x402 payment required before data is returned","Signature verification failure — Ed25519 attestation cannot be verified if pubkey is not fetched from discovery endpoint","No upcoming FOMC meeting data — response may be empty or indicate no scheduled meeting in range","Rate limit or quota exceeded — repeated calls without proper payment may be rejected"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need cryptographically attested, aggregated prediction market data on Fed rate probabilities rather than raw exchange feeds or survey-based forecasts. It is ideal for autonomous agents that need tamper-evident macro signals (via Ed25519 signing) for use in investment logic, risk models, or macro briefings. Prefer it over scraping Kalshi or Polymarket directly because it aggregates both sources and provides derived metrics (entropy, surprise, expected change) in a single call. Use it over econometric model outputs when you want market-consensus, real-time implied probabilities rather than model-based estimates.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T12:57:07.072Z","isFirstParty":false}