{"uid":"cap_cvDeNlQHety-hYnIyCm4Y","slug":"simple-exponential-smoothing-ses-forecast-a4752f07","name":"Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecast","description":"Simple exponential smoothing (SES) - level-only forecast for series without trend or seasonality. Higher alpha (closer to 1) tracks recent values aggressively; lower alpha (closer to 0) smooths through noise. Default alpha=0.3 is a common conservative pick; pass an explicit alpha or use forecast-eval to pick the one that minimizes backtest error. Forecast is flat (= last fitted level) for all horizons.","url":"https://agent402.tools/api/forecast-ses","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"alpha":{"type":"number","description":"Smoothing parameter, 0 < alpha < 1 (default 0.3)"},"values":{"type":"array","description":"Numeric series in chronological order (max 10000, min 3)"},"horizon":{"type":"number","description":"Number of future periods to forecast (1 to 1000)"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"n":10,"alpha":0.3,"method":"ses","horizon":3,"forecast":[{"step":1,"point":45.4431,"lower95":42.7805,"upper95":48.1057},{"step":2,"point":45.4431,"lower95":42.6633,"upper95":48.2229},{"step":3,"point":45.4431,"lower95":42.5508,"upper95":48.3354}]}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_bOV_BpZxZKQvSSxWuHMyG","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Applies simple exponential smoothing to a numeric time series and returns level-only forecasts for a specified future horizon","exampleAgentPrompt":"Can you use simple exponential smoothing to forecast the next 12 periods of this monthly sales series — [120, 135, 128, 142, 150, 147, 160, 155, 170, 165, 180, 175, 190] — with an alpha of 0.4?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns smoothed forecast values for the requested number of future periods, computed via the SES algorithm applied to the input chronological series with the specified alpha parameter.","failureModes":["Series has fewer than 3 values — returns validation error","Alpha is outside the (0, 1) range — returns parameter error","Horizon exceeds 1000 — returns out-of-range error","Series length exceeds 10000 elements — returns payload too large error","Non-numeric values in the series — returns type error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you have a stationary time series with no clear trend or seasonality and want a simple, interpretable forecast. Ideal for smoothing noisy data with controllable reactivity via alpha. Prefer over ARIMA or Holt-Winters when simplicity and speed matter more than modeling complex patterns.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T19:14:06.935Z","isFirstParty":false}