{"uid":"cap_cnEDpIRdouCOfPVxboCVD","slug":"x402-factory-bitcoin-above-100k-end-of-year-probability-3c03911b","name":"x402-factory Bitcoin Above $100k End-of-Year Probability","description":"Live probability: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"slug":"bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12","topic":"btc-above-100k-eoy","category":"crypto","question":"Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?","per_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","implied_p":0.6534,"market_id":"KXBITCOINABOVE10","volume_24h_usd":278227.41,"liquidity_score":0.948},{"venue":"polymarket","implied_p":0.6439,"market_id":"bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12","volume_24h_usd":132320.07,"liquidity_score":0.932}],"divergence":0.0095,"probability":0.6492,"current_slug":"bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12","last_move_1h":0.0023,"topic_question":"Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end?","resolution_date":"2026-12-31","rolls_to_next_at":"2026-12-31","resolution_criteria_summary":"Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades above $100,000 at the Dec 31 close reference."},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.btc-above-100k-eoy","sources":["kalshi","polymarket"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:58.085Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_KNqRAEsfuo5L9ssenBntG","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the live consensus probability that Bitcoin will trade above $100k at year end, aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, with auto-roll to the next annual instance on resolution.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current prediction market odds that Bitcoin will trade above $100k by end of this year, and is there any divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Real-time Bitcoin price milestone tracking","prompt":"What's the live probability from prediction markets that Bitcoin finishes this year above $100k? Show me the numbers from each venue and whether they agree."},{"title":"Crypto portfolio risk context","prompt":"I'm deciding whether to buy Bitcoin options — what do Kalshi and Polymarket currently give as the probability that BTC is above $100k at year end, and how much has that probability moved in the last hour?"},{"title":"News impact monitoring on BTC outlook","prompt":"BTC just had a big price move — has the prediction market probability for Bitcoin ending the year above $100k changed, and which venue moved more?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with a consensus probability (0–1) for BTC above $100k at year end, per-venue breakdown (Kalshi and Polymarket) each with implied probability, 24h volume in USD, and liquidity score, plus overall divergence between venues, last 1-hour probability move, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, the current active market slug, and a rolls-to-next timestamp indicating when the question will auto-advance to the next annual instance.","failureModes":["Payment failure if x402 USDC payment of $0.02 is not completed correctly","No active market available if neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a live instance of this question","Stale data if upstream prediction market APIs are temporarily unavailable","Divergence value may be zero if only one venue has an active market","rolls_to_next_at may be null if no future roll is scheduled"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a stable, evergreen URL for the Bitcoin $100k year-end question that automatically tracks the current annual instance without updating your integration. Prefer this over scraping individual Kalshi or Polymarket pages when you want aggregated cross-venue consensus and built-in roll-forward behavior. Best suited for dashboards, agents, or workflows that need a single persistent endpoint for this recurring crypto milestone question.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T01:05:38.618Z","isFirstParty":false}