{"uid":"cap_bnCQ07WQZw9h9LoembH_k","slug":"manylives-track-records-luck-test-618386bb","name":"ManyLives Track Records – Luck Test","description":"Pay-per-call tools for people building AI agents: live web search and page contents, point-in-time crypto market data and news for backtests (no lookahead), verifiable track records of 1,000 crypto strategies locked on the Base network, company profiles, quick AI and batch prices. Ask us to turn a public website into a JSON endpoint. Pay per call, no account, free trial.","url":"https://api.manylives.me/paid/trackrecord/luck?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"type":"string","const":"GET"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["id","window"],"properties":{"id":{"type":"string","examples":["CRY-5m-001"],"description":"strategy id (required), e.g. CRY-1h-042"},"window":{"type":"string","examples":["all"],"description":"required lookback, e.g. 1d, 3d, 1w, 30d, 3m, 1y, all or a start date YYYY-MM-DD"}}}}},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"json"},"example":{"type":"object","properties":{"id":{"type":"string"},"calls":{"type":"number"},"window":{"type":"string"},"verdict":{"type":"string"},"hit_rate":{"type":"number"},"holm_adjusted_p":{"type":"number"},"p_value_one_sided":{"type":"number"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"id":"CRY-1h-042","calls":2400,"window":"all time","verdict":"looks good on its own, but could be luck once you allow for how many strategies were tested","hit_rate":0.523,"holm_adjusted_p":0.9,"p_value_one_sided":0.012}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.03","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.03/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_bHaOWeZqfr0IsAzgz871W","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.03","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a statistical luck analysis for a given trading strategy, including hit rate, p-value, and Holm-adjusted p-value to determine whether the strategy's performance is statistically significant or likely due to chance.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Can you run the luck test on strategy CRY-5m-001 over the last 30 days and tell me whether its hit rate is statistically significant or likely just chance?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Vetting a new crypto strategy","prompt":"I found strategy CRY-1h-042 on ManyLives — can you check if its historical win rate is statistically significant or just the result of data mining luck? Run it over all available data."},{"title":"Filtering strategies by statistical rigor","prompt":"I want to only use trading strategies that pass a strict significance test. Check strategy CRY-5m-001 and tell me the Holm-adjusted p-value and verdict — is this one worth trusting?"},{"title":"Monthly strategy audit","prompt":"Can you pull the luck test results for strategy CRY-1h-042 for just the last 30 days and tell me if the hit rate still holds up statistically, or if it looks like it's drifting into noise?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing the strategy ID, number of trades evaluated, the time window analyzed, a plain-English verdict on whether the strategy looks statistically sound, a hit rate (fraction of winning trades), a raw one-sided p-value, and a Holm-adjusted p-value that corrects for the fact that many strategies were tested — higher Holm-adjusted values indicate likely luck.","failureModes":["Missing or invalid strategy ID returns an error — the 'id' query parameter is required","Unknown strategy ID returns a not-found error if the strategy doesn't exist in the 2,000+ strategy catalog","Invalid window value (not one of 7d, 30d, 3m, 1y, all) may return a validation error","Payment failure or insufficient USDC balance returns HTTP 402 and the call is not executed","Network timeout if the statistical computation takes longer than expected"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need to statistically validate whether a specific trading strategy's backtest performance is genuine or a result of overfitting/multiple comparison bias. It is specifically valuable when evaluating strategies from the ManyLives catalog (identified by IDs like CRY-1h-042), where the Holm correction across 2,000+ strategies is pre-computed. Prefer this over raw backtest data endpoints when your primary concern is whether a strategy's edge is real after correcting for data mining.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-10T12:42:02.989Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"manylives-track-records-luck-test-618386bb"}