{"uid":"cap_bVKdovEr8EiwfmRiwYMmy","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f53a2671","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-live-odds-feed)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-live-odds-feed?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_DQ-Pd6FeWpZbfot77Wpio","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any prediction market topic or event keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in September?' — and tell me what the whale sentiment and volume look like?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that Ethereum hits $5,000 this year? Show me the orderbook odds and any notable whale sentiment."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction odds","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds on whether the US will enter a recession in 2025 — I want the Yes/No probabilities and recent trading volume."},{"title":"AI milestone prediction market","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of GPT-5 being released before the end of the year? Give me the implied odds and whale activity."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, 24h trading volume, market liquidity depth, and whale sentiment indicators for relevant prediction market events matching the query.","failureModes":["Topic keyword returns no matching Polymarket markets — response may be empty or return closest-match alternatives","Stale or delayed orderbook data if Polymarket API is experiencing latency","Ambiguous topic string matches multiple unrelated markets — agent may need to disambiguate","Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient — 402 response returned","Rate limiting or overload returns 429 or 503 error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets for macro, crypto, political, or AI events. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money and orderbook depth rather than qualitative sentiment. Ideal for agents doing risk assessment, investment research, or event forecasting that requires quantitative probability signals rather than narrative summaries.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:34:29.371Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}