{"uid":"cap_adoUOXgASFPDh6XHoWHIM","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-cf6176f7","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Ue2uUDKZPKqsf6lkJnB98","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given topic or event keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability that Bitcoin will hit $150k by end of 2025 — include volume and whale sentiment if available?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Macro event probability check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of a US recession in 2025? I want the implied Yes and No odds and how much volume is trading on it."},{"title":"Crypto market sentiment signal","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket orderbook odds on Ethereum ETF approval — I want to see the implied probability and whether whales are leaning Yes or No right now."},{"title":"AI milestone prediction tracking","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that GPT-5 or a major frontier AI model gets released before July 2025? Show me the Yes/No odds and any sentiment signals."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic including implied Yes/No probabilities, current volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, and AI-related prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null market data","Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is rate-limited or temporarily unavailable","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return multiple or the most popular match","Payment required (HTTP 402) if x402 USDC micropayment is not provided","Topic too vague to resolve to a specific market — broad terms may return unexpected results"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates and market sentiment for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events, specifically sourced from Polymarket's orderbook. Prefer this over static news or analyst estimates when you want a live, financially-backed implied probability with volume and whale activity signals.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T12:46:29.630Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}