{"uid":"cap_Y_0i58uoZKthrwXHSM6a6","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-79ceecda","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_jwfGjWvW1Xe12PCq9_MA6","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI event topics.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket live odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025'? I want the orderbook data and whale sentiment too.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for the 2026 US midterm elections — I want the implied Yes and No probabilities, current volume, and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"Crypto price event market monitoring","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of Bitcoin hitting $150k before the end of 2025? Give me the full orderbook summary and whale activity."},{"title":"AI regulation event odds lookup","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now for any active markets on AI regulation or an OpenAI IPO — what are the implied odds and how much volume is there?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), 24h trading volume, whale sentiment indicators, and relevant market metadata such as event name and question text.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Topic string too vague or ambiguous, causing mismatched or irrelevant market data to be returned","Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or unavailable data","Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned","Malformed or missing topic field in request body causing a validation error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's live orderbooks — especially when you want implied Yes/No probabilities and whale sentiment rather than just news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general web search when you specifically need quantified market-derived probability data with volume context.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:30:18.553Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}