{"uid":"cap_Y51VBf2LOKZpvaAc34NLL","slug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-00055494","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_koPblYDTB8yiR5vvB9QLW","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"sec-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://sec-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds right now for the US entering a recession — give me the Yes/No implied probabilities, volume, and any whale sentiment signals.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket probability of Ethereum flipping Bitcoin in market cap this year? Show me the Yes/No odds and how much volume is on that market."},{"title":"Election outcome odds monitoring","prompt":"Pull up the latest Polymarket odds on who wins the next US presidential election — I want the implied probabilities and whale sentiment for each candidate."},{"title":"Geopolitical risk assessment","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of a major NATO-Russia military confrontation happening this year? Give me the live orderbook odds and volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators derived from large-order activity.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Topic query is too vague or ambiguous, returning unrelated markets","Polymarket API upstream downtime causing stale or unavailable data","Rate limiting or payment failure preventing the request from completing","Very niche or newly created markets may have low volume or incomplete orderbook data"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events as priced by Polymarket traders. Prefer this over static news or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities that reflect actual money-at-stake sentiment, especially for time-sensitive decisions or when monitoring how consensus shifts on an event.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:23:07.505Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"sec-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-35a65946"}