{"uid":"cap_XndZ2QylG0zs7Ipg3QOFu","slug":"macropulse-event-deep-dive-b0c3c17a","name":"MacroPulse Event Deep-Dive","description":"Deep-dive on any economic event for FX and macro agents — NFP, CPI, FOMC, GDP and central-bank decisions: what the print means, the base/bull/bear scenario tree, and the pairs in play.","url":"https://macropulse-alpha.vercel.app/api/event-pulse","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"event":{"type":"string","description":"FOMC | NFP | CPI | GDP | PCE | ECB | BOJ | ISM | PMI | JOLTS"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"errors":{"type":"object","description":"Documented error responses, keyed by HTTP status code","additionalProperties":{"type":"object","required":["description"],"properties":{"example":{"type":"object"},"description":{"type":"string"}}}},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"date":"2026-06-11","event":"FOMC","consensus":"hold at 5.25-5.50%","key_watch":"Dot plot and Powell presser tone","market_pricing":"92% hold, 8% cut","eur_usd_reaction_scenarios":{"dovish":"+80 pips","hawkish":"-60 pips"}}},"example":{"request":{"date":"2024-01-10","event":"US_CPI_RELEASE","currency_pair":"EURUSD"},"response":{"meta":{"news_items":0,"usd_stress":"normal","macro_signals":0},"event":"US CPI Release (June 2026)","figures":{"actual":null,"forecast":"2.4%","previous":"2.3%","surprise":"pending"},"headline":"May CPI data drops into a market finely balanced between sticky services inflation and Fed rate-cut expectations — a surprise in either direction could reprice 2026 easing bets sharply.","narrative":"The Fed Funds Rate at 3.63% reflects meaningful easing from the cycle peak, yet the 10Y at 4.43% and 2Y at 4.05% signal that markets are not fully convinced further cuts are imminent — the 38bp term premium between funds rate and 2Y is unusually compressed, pointing to genuine uncertainty about the path forward. Unemployment at 4.3% gives the Fed optionality to cut if inflation cooperates, but with Brent crude at $84.36/bbl — elevated enough to keep energy components from being a disinflationary tailwind — the CPI's shelter and services components are the decisive battleground. The 10-year breakeven at 2.26% suggests long-run inflation expectations are well-anchored, which limits the 'panic' scenario on a hot print, but also means a miss would be treated as credible dovish signal rather than a statistical blip. With VIX at 16.41, the options market is in a relatively calm state — this CPI has the potential to be a volatility-expanding event, particularly given London Open only 79 minutes away when institutional desks will be positioned and ready to act on the number.","scenarios":{"beat":"If headline CPI prints above ~2.6% or core exceeds 3.0% YoY, markets will aggressively price out remaining 2026 Fed cut expectations. The 2Y yield (currently 4.05%) would spike toward 4.20–4.30%, USD/JPY challenges 162, EUR/USD breaks below 1.1450, and gold sells off 1–1.5%. The Fed's data-dependent stance makes a September cut near-impossible on a hot print. Equities would face pressure as rate-sensitive sectors reprice.","miss":"A headline print below ~2.1% or core below 2.6% would be a significant dovish catalyst. Markets would rapidly price a September cut as near-certain and pull forward a second cut into Q4 2026. EUR/USD vaults toward 1.17–1.1750, USD/JPY drops toward 157–158 (watch for MOF jawboning), gold rallies $25–40/oz. The 10Y yield (currently 4.43%) would test 4.20–4.25%. This scenario is arguably more tradeable given how much USD long positioning has been rebuilt.","inline":"An inline print near 2.4% headline / ~2.8% core is the most nuanced outcome and is likely partially priced in given the 10-year breakeven sitting at 2.26% — markets are not projecting a major inflation resurgence. An inline result would initially be 'sell the fact' for USD, as the marginal upside for dollar bulls is limited — the narrative stays status quo. EUR/USD may drift 20–30 pips higher, USD/JPY softens modestly toward 159.50, and gold holds its range. The real market mover would then shift to the Fed speakers post-release and whether any voting member shifts tone. Crucially, an inline print does NOT guarantee a September cut — the Fed needs to see a sustained trend, not a single data point."},"disclaimer":"For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.","agent_action":"Pre-release: Avoid initiating directional positions within 15 minutes of the print — bid-ask spreads widen and stop-hunt wicks are common in the first 60 seconds. If already long USD/JPY above 160.00, tighten stops to 159.20 to protect against a miss-driven flush. If positioned for USD weakness (long EUR/USD), set a hard stop below 1.1480 in case of a hot print. Post-release: On a beat — look to sell EUR/USD rallies into 1.1550–1.1570 resistance on any immediate knee-jerk spike with a target of 1.1420; on a miss — buy EUR/USD dips toward 1.1540 targeting 1.1700, and monitor USD/JPY for a break below 159.00 as a clean short entry with MOF verbal intervention risk as a defined stop. Key watch level: 2-Year Treasury yield — if it spikes above 4.25% on a beat, USD momentum is real; if it fails to breach 4.15% on an inline, the USD bid is exhausted.","generated_at":"2026-06-18T05:42:33.696Z","impact_pairs":[{"pair":"EURUSD","reason":"EUR/USD at 1.1573 is in extended bullish territory; a hot CPI reviving Fed hawkishness would trigger sharp USD bid and compress the pair back toward 1.14–1.1450 support. A miss accelerates the move toward 1.17.","direction":"down on beat / up on miss","magnitude":"strong"},{"pair":"USDJPY","reason":"USD/JPY at 160.24 is already at multi-month highs and highly sensitive to US rate differentials. A hot print pushes 10Y yields higher and could target 162+. A miss and any associated yield drop could trigger rapid yen short-covering toward 157–158.","direction":"up on beat / down on miss","magnitude":"strong"},{"pair":"GBPUSD","reason":"Cable at 1.3414 has been supported by BoE hawkishness; a USD-bullish CPI would challenge recent highs and pressure toward 1.3250. A cool print likely sees GBP test 1.36.","direction":"down on beat / up on miss","magnitude":"moderate"},{"pair":"XAUUSD","reason":"Gold is highly inversely correlated to real yield expectations. A hot CPI lifts real rates and crushes gold; a soft print validates easing expectations and propels gold higher given already-elevated breakeven inflation at 2.26%.","direction":"down on beat / up on miss","magnitude":"strong"},{"pair":"USDCNH","reason":"USD/CNY at 6.7626 (PBoC reference) would face upward pressure on a strong CPI as USD bids broaden across EM. PBoC fixings will be watched closely for any counter-cyclical signal post-release.","direction":"up on beat / down on miss","magnitude":"moderate"}],"queried_event":"US_CPI_RELEASE","release_status":"upcoming","historical_context":"Over the past 18 months, US CPI prints have driven outsized intraday moves in EUR/USD of 60–120 pips, with the biggest reactions occurring when the core services ex-shelter component surprised relative to consensus. Markets have been in a 'good news is bad news' regime for USD — strong inflation = fewer cuts = USD strength — though that dynamic has softened somewhat as disinflation has progressed. The CPIAUCSL index level at ~334 reflects cumulative post-pandemic price absorption; the year-on-year rate having decelerated from a 9%+ peak to the low 2s represents substantial progress, but the final mile toward the Fed's 2% target on PCE terms remains contested."}},"exampleRequest":{"date":"2024-01-10","event":"US_CPI_RELEASE","currency_pair":"EURUSD"},"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.2","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"settled","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.2/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.2","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.2","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_u5RxBkdGjiS7x_e-D7pk-","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.2","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Delivers in-depth economic event analysis for forex traders, covering a specific macro event's implications for currency markets","exampleAgentPrompt":"Give me a MacroPulse deep-dive on today's US CPI release — I want to know the actual vs expected figures, what it means for USD pairs, and whether the market reaction makes sense.","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"A detailed analysis of a specific economic event including the actual versus expected figures, historical context, central bank implications, directional forex bias, and actionable insights for currency traders.","failureModes":["Event not found or unrecognized event identifier returns an error","Stale or unavailable data if event has not yet been released","Payment failure if USDC balance is insufficient for $0.20 per call","Invalid or missing required query parameters","Rate limiting if too many requests are made in a short window"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a focused, in-depth analysis of a specific economic event and its forex market implications, rather than a broad market overview. Ideal when a key data release (CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP) has just occurred and you want structured interpretation of its impact on currency pairs. Prefer this over the session brief or sentiment endpoints when the user is asking specifically about a single macro event.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T12:51:14.748Z","isFirstParty":false}