{"uid":"cap_XXdKBIGgJlrP13pfWkYeT","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-cdd7a52c","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_KD2LR13WlqxPhuLakF5sL","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the Fed cutting interest rates in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability research","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for Ethereum ETF approval — I want to see the implied Yes probability, current volume, and what the whales are leaning toward."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction market check","prompt":"What is Polymarket currently pricing in for a US recession in 2025? Give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and any notable order flow or whale activity."},{"title":"AI milestone market odds","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds that GPT-5 or a major new frontier AI model launches before the end of 2025? I need the implied probability and trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook state, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching markets.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket markets found for the given topic keyword — returns empty result set","Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — returns upstream error","Ambiguous topic keyword matches too many markets — returns multiple unfiltered results","Payment not completed via x402 — returns HTTP 402 with payment details","Malformed or empty topic string — fails input validation"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need live, real-time crowd-sourced probability data from Polymarket's decentralized prediction markets, especially for macro events, crypto milestones, AI announcements, or geopolitical outcomes. Prefer this over traditional news or financial data feeds when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money, not just sentiment or editorial opinion. Ideal for agent workflows that need to price in event risk or track shifting consensus on binary outcomes.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:33:39.753Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}