{"uid":"cap_WoEO0W0YAgVj3wKoEqtGd","slug":"defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6f10610d","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_5TFv-KNI4HRLFe1XjpHhq","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"defi-yield.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://defi-yield.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for Bitcoin reaching $100k by end of year? Pull the orderbook data and whale sentiment too.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show as the implied probability of the Republican candidate winning the 2024 US presidential election? Give me the Yes/No odds and any notable whale activity."},{"title":"Fed rate cut prediction market","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for the Fed cutting interest rates at the next FOMC meeting — I want to see the Yes/No probabilities and current trading volume."},{"title":"Crypto ETF approval sentiment","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now for the implied probability of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved this quarter — show me the orderbook sentiment and whale positions."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages), total trading volume, whale/large-trader sentiment signals, and relevant market metadata for the matched prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — may return the most popular match rather than the intended one","Market may be recently resolved or expired — odds may reflect a closed market","Polymarket API upstream downtime causes fetch failure","Payment not processed (x402) — endpoint returns 402 and does not deliver data"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need live, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money. Best for agents that need quantitative Yes/No probability estimates rather than qualitative sentiment, or when whale/volume data is needed to assess conviction.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:24:35.723Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"defi-yield-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5eb33d8e"}