{"uid":"cap_THQfwOZbWYTDSUz0tEYJO","slug":"prediction-event-cross-venue-fusion-af5377d1","name":"Prediction Event Cross-Venue Fusion","description":"Cross-venue event fusion: match the SAME event across prediction venues (deterministic fuzzy title match + resolve-date proximity) and return each venue's implied probability, a money-type-weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal (venue disagreement, not a tradeable arbitrage).","url":"https://payai.agentstools.dev/prediction/event","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":[],"properties":{"query":{"type":"string","description":"The event to fuse across venues (free text)"},"venue":{"enum":["polymarket","manifold","metaculus"],"type":"string","description":"Optional venue key for market_id"},"market_id":{"type":"string","description":"Optional venue market id (anchor)"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_LxhKmXqkQeI_8NyIVCdGf","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Matches the same prediction market event across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus, returning each venue's implied probability, a weighted consensus, and a divergence signal indicating disagreement between venues.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Search for the event 'Will the US enter a recession in 2025?' across prediction markets and give me each venue's implied probability, the weighted consensus, and tell me how much the venues disagree with each other.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability comparison","prompt":"Look up 'Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election' across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus and show me each venue's probability and whether they're significantly diverging."},{"title":"AI milestone forecasting consensus","prompt":"What's the cross-venue consensus probability that AGI will be achieved by 2030? Pull from all the major prediction markets and tell me how much they disagree."},{"title":"Anchored Polymarket market fusion","prompt":"I have a Polymarket market ID for the Fed rate cut event — can you fuse it with Manifold and Metaculus forecasts for the same event and give me the weighted consensus and divergence score?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing each venue's (Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus) implied probability for the matched event, a money-type-weighted consensus probability across venues, and a forecast-divergence signal quantifying how much the venues disagree — explicitly not a tradeable arbitrage signal.","failureModes":["Event query too ambiguous to match any market across venues — returns no results or low-confidence matches","Venue-specific market unavailable or offline — partial results with missing venue probabilities","Provided market_id does not correspond to a known event on the specified venue — lookup failure","No cross-venue match found within resolve-date proximity — empty fusion result","Rate limit or payment failure — 402 or 429 response"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a multi-venue consensus probability for a specific prediction market event, especially when you want to detect disagreement between venues or get a money-weighted aggregate forecast rather than relying on a single prediction market. Prefer this over querying Polymarket or Manifold individually when cross-venue comparison or divergence detection is the goal.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T00:30:17.188Z","isFirstParty":false}