{"uid":"cap_QWS5RR8-1DReu1zQ_9HlC","slug":"delx-commerce-kelly-binary-fraction-calculator-1d0f46a9","name":"Delx Commerce — Kelly Binary Fraction Calculator","description":"Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.","url":"https://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/kelly-binary?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"true_prob":{"type":"number","description":"Input field: true prob."},"market_price":{"type":"number","description":"Input field: market price."}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"kelly":0.2727272727272727,"schema":"delx/util-kelly-binary/v1","true_prob":0.6,"market_price":0.45}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_XFkEo_SrtV5BFE3--utwq","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Computes the Kelly criterion fraction for a binary outcome bet given a true probability and a market price","exampleAgentPrompt":"I think the true probability of this outcome is 60% but the market price is 45% — what fraction of my bankroll should I bet according to Kelly?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Prediction market position sizing","prompt":"I believe a prediction market event has a 70% true probability but is priced at 55% — calculate the Kelly optimal fraction of my portfolio I should allocate."},{"title":"Sports betting bankroll management","prompt":"My model gives this match a 65% win probability but the bookmaker is offering odds implying 50% — how much of my bankroll does Kelly say I should stake?"},{"title":"Crypto binary options sizing","prompt":"I want to trade a binary options contract; I estimate the true probability at 55% and the market price is 48%. Give me the Kelly fraction for sizing my position."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object containing the Kelly fraction (a decimal between -1 and 1 representing the optimal fraction of bankroll to wager), the input true_prob and market_price echoed back, and a schema identifier string ('delx/util-kelly-binary/v1') for result verification.","failureModes":["Missing required fields (true_prob or market_price) returns a validation error","true_prob outside [0,1] may yield undefined or negative Kelly fractions","market_price outside (0,1) may cause division errors or nonsensical results","Payment failure via x402 protocol results in 402 response before computation","Network timeout if the Base or Solana payment chain is congested"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a fast, cheap, verifiable computation of the Kelly criterion fraction for a binary-outcome market and want to pay per result with no subscription or signup. Ideal for AI agents operating in prediction markets, sports betting, or binary options that require on-demand, programmatic position sizing at sub-cent cost with cryptographic payment proof via USDC on Base or Solana.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-02T03:37:26.836Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"delx-commerce-kelly-binary-fraction-calculator-1d0f46a9"}