{"uid":"cap_Q8dcQ0juSUIwNS_NCIIk0","slug":"kronos-btc-options-implied-probability-6acc4047","name":"Kronos BTC Options-Implied Probability","description":"Options-implied probability that BTC or ETH is above each given price at a target time, from the Deribit option book (skew-inclusive call-spread digitals): the options market's fair value for Kalshi/Polymarket crypto threshold contracts, not a forecast. Query: strikes=85000,90000 (up to 25), at=ISO time or Unix. $0.02 USDC via x402.","url":"https://kronossignals.com/api/v1/implied-prob/btc?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"pathParams":{"type":"object"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_iXbI7vnU_i6brwj3D-FKF","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the options-market-implied probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will be above each specified strike price at a given target time, derived from Deribit's live options order book using skew-inclusive call-spread digitals.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the Deribit options-implied probability that BTC is above $85,000 and $90,000 at the end of this month? Use strikes 85000,90000 and set the target to December 31 at midnight UTC.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pricing a Kalshi BTC threshold contract","prompt":"I'm looking at a Kalshi contract that pays out if BTC is above $90,000 on January 31st — what probability does the Deribit options market assign to that happening? Check strikes at 85000 and 90000 for January 31 at midnight UTC."},{"title":"Multi-strike BTC probability sweep","prompt":"Give me the options-implied probabilities that BTC is above $80,000, $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 as of next Friday at 8pm UTC — I want to see the full probability curve across those strikes."},{"title":"Polymarket fair value cross-check","prompt":"There's a Polymarket contract asking whether BTC will be above $88,000 by March 1st. What does the Deribit options book say the fair probability is? I want to know if the market is mispriced."}],"resultDescription":"A list of strike prices mapped to their options-implied probabilities (0–1 or percentage) that BTC will be above each strike at the specified target time. Values are derived from skew-inclusive call-spread digital pricing on the Deribit options book, representing the risk-neutral market consensus, not a directional forecast.","failureModes":["Invalid or malformed strike prices — API may reject non-numeric or out-of-range strikes","Target time too far in the future — no liquid Deribit options may exist at that expiry","More than 25 strikes requested — exceeds the documented per-call limit","Invalid ISO timestamp or Unix time format for the 'at' parameter","Payment not received or insufficient USDC — x402 payment flow fails, 402 returned","Deribit options book unavailable or illiquid — may return null or error for strikes with no options data"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need the options market's risk-neutral probability for BTC crossing specific price thresholds at a defined future time — especially when pricing or cross-checking Kalshi, Polymarket, or other prediction market contracts on BTC. It is preferable to ML forecasts when you want a market-consensus, arbitrage-consistent probability rather than a model-based directional prediction. Best for quantitative traders, prediction market arbitrageurs, and agents that need fair-value benchmarks for binary crypto outcome contracts.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-13T18:50:28.346Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"kronos-btc-options-implied-probability-6acc4047"}