{"uid":"cap_MF9r6P6i75ZikOLjnryDi","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-ce4ee988","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_nrrPJcuYSDshXGKm5D2T4","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data including implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities on the Fed cutting rates at the next FOMC meeting?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"FOMC rate decision odds monitoring","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket orderbook and implied Yes/No probabilities for the next FOMC interest rate cut decision — I want to see current volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No."},{"title":"Crypto event sentiment from prediction markets","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds on Bitcoin reaching $100k this year? Give me the implied probability, volume, and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"AI regulation event probability check","prompt":"Check Polymarket for the live implied probability that the US passes an AI regulation bill in 2025 — I want the Yes/No odds and current market volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket prediction market data including implied Yes/No probabilities from the orderbook, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the queried event or topic.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result","Polymarket API or upstream data unavailable — may return an error or stale data","Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — result may be for an unintended market","Payment not processed — 402 response if x402 payment header is missing or invalid"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-implied probabilities from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks for macro, crypto, or AI events — particularly when you want actual market-priced odds rather than model forecasts or news sentiment. Prefer this over general news search when you need a single quantified probability with volume and whale activity context.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T00:37:20.390Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}