{"uid":"cap_Ly-QVQ-DdhBd6YztuSbOx","slug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6fc5f289","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_Eo_GnkthDlbAi-0hypYT7","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given event topic or keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a US recession happening this year, including current volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto price event probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $150k before the end of this year — I want to see volume and whale sentiment too."},{"title":"Election outcome market monitoring","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of a Republican winning the 2026 midterms? Give me the yes/no implied odds and any notable whale activity."},{"title":"Macro risk sentiment for portfolio decisions","prompt":"Check Polymarket for live prediction market odds on the Fed cutting rates at the next FOMC meeting — I need the implied probability, volume, and order book sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Ambiguous topic resolves to multiple markets — response may include multiple entries requiring disambiguation","Polymarket API or data feed downtime causes stale or unavailable data","Overly broad topic returns too many markets with diluted signal","Payment not processed via x402 — returns HTTP 402 Payment Required"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from a decentralized prediction market, especially for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI policy events. It is ideal when you want market-implied odds rather than model-generated forecasts, and when whale sentiment and trading volume provide additional signal. Prefer this over general news search when you need a quantitative probability rather than qualitative coverage.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:30:52.050Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f374aea4"}