{"uid":"cap_Kp7OXVrqlf0ysn6SxoELk","slug":"mycelia-signal-prediction-market-divergence-kalshi-vs-polymarket-b794ed4f","name":"Mycelia Signal — Prediction Market Divergence (Kalshi vs Polymarket)","description":"Cross-venue prediction market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket spread on BTC price and Fed rate with significance regime (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) — Ed25519 signed attestation","url":"https://api.myceliasignal.com/oracle/intel/prediction/divergence","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"1","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$1/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"1","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_rEhLgrsh__GE8hXRm7_OA","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"1","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the current spread between Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets on BTC price and Fed rate, with a significance regime label (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED), signed with Ed25519","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket on BTC price and the Fed rate — are the markets aligned or split, and can I get a signed attestation of the reading?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Arbitrage signal detection for traders","prompt":"Are Kalshi and Polymarket currently divergent on BTC price? I want to know the spread and whether the regime is DIVERGENT, MODERATE, or ALIGNED so I can decide if there's an arb opportunity."},{"title":"Fed rate outcome cross-venue check","prompt":"Pull the latest Polymarket vs Kalshi spread on Fed rate expectations and tell me if the markets are aligned or showing a significant divergence right now."},{"title":"Verified macro sentiment for on-chain agent","prompt":"I need a cryptographically signed snapshot of the current Kalshi vs Polymarket spread on both BTC price and Fed rate so my on-chain agent can trustlessly verify market sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON response containing the numerical spread between Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets for BTC price and Fed rate outcomes, a significance regime label (DIVERGENT, MODERATE, or ALIGNED) indicating how meaningful the gap is, and an Ed25519 signed attestation allowing downstream verification of data authenticity.","failureModes":["External prediction market APIs unavailable — stale or missing spread data","Ed25519 signing failure — unsigned or malformed attestation returned","Payment not received — 402 response requiring $1 USDC payment via x402 protocol","Market not currently active — one or both venues may not have an open market for the requested asset","Rate limiting — too many requests in a short window"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a cryptographically attested, cross-venue comparison of prediction market sentiment on BTC price or Fed rate — especially when downstream systems require verifiable provenance (Ed25519 signature). Prefer it over scraping individual venue APIs when you need a normalized divergence regime label (DIVERGENT/MODERATE/ALIGNED) rather than raw probabilities, or when building on-chain agents that need trustless data verification.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T12:47:59.248Z","isFirstParty":false}