{"uid":"cap_KPzQQcmiZZGQoWDb5kMYJ","slug":"x402-factory-s-p-500-positive-this-year-probability-10857bd2","name":"x402-factory S&P 500 Positive This Year Probability","description":"Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/sp500-positive-this-year","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"slug":"sp500-close-above-7000-2026-12","topic":"sp500-positive-this-year","category":"economics","question":"Will the S&P 500 close above 7000 on December 31?","per_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","implied_p":0.4022,"market_id":"KXSP500CLOSEABOV","volume_24h_usd":182273.22,"liquidity_score":0.921},{"venue":"polymarket","implied_p":0.367,"market_id":"sp500-close-above-7000-2026-12","volume_24h_usd":154584.53,"liquidity_score":0.949}],"divergence":0.0352,"probability":0.3812,"current_slug":"sp500-close-above-7000-2026-12","last_move_1h":0,"topic_question":"Will the S&P 500 finish the year positive?","resolution_date":"2026-12-31","rolls_to_next_at":"2026-12-31","resolution_criteria_summary":"Resolves YES if the official closing level on the last trading day exceeds 7000."},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.sp500-positive-this-year","sources":["kalshi","polymarket"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/evergreen/sp500-positive-this-year","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:58.097Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_iFHSQ3eJ76wVPQrrcjf--","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns real-time prediction-market probability that the S&P 500 will finish the year positive (close above 7000 on Dec 31), aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, via micropayment (x402/USDC).","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current prediction market probability — across Kalshi and Polymarket — that the S&P 500 closes above 7000 and finishes positive this year, and is there a meaningful divergence between the two venues?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Equity outlook for portfolio review","prompt":"Before I rebalance my portfolio, what's the real-time prediction market consensus that the S&P 500 ends the year positive? Pull the Kalshi and Polymarket numbers and tell me if they disagree."},{"title":"Trading signal from cross-venue divergence","prompt":"Is there currently a notable spread between Kalshi and Polymarket on the S&P 500 finishing positive this year? I want to know the implied probabilities from each venue and the divergence score."},{"title":"Market sentiment check for macro report","prompt":"For my weekly macro briefing, give me the latest crowd-sourced probability that the S&P 500 closes above 7000 on December 31, including the 24-hour trading volume and liquidity scores from each prediction market venue."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with the aggregated implied probability (e.g. 0.3812) that the S&P 500 closes above 7000 on December 31, per-venue breakdowns from Kalshi and Polymarket (each with implied probability, market ID, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score), a divergence score between venues, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, and metadata including data freshness and source list.","failureModes":["HTTP 402 returned on first call without payment — agent must parse payment requirements and retry with X-PAYMENT header containing valid USDC on Base","Insufficient USDC balance causes payment failure and request rejection","Market may roll to next slug if resolution date passes — check current_slug in response","Stale or unavailable venue data may reduce per_venue array to fewer than two entries","Network timeouts if called during high-traffic periods on prediction market APIs"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a real-time, cross-venue aggregated probability for the S&P 500 annual outcome with liquidity and volume context. It is preferable to scraping Kalshi or Polymarket individually because it normalizes data across both venues, computes divergence, and provides a single consensus probability. Use it for macro research, portfolio decision support, or detecting arbitrage signals between prediction markets. Requires micropayment via x402 protocol (USDC on Base, $0.02/call).","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-14T12:43:48.162Z","isFirstParty":false}